KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.8
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.6%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.35
Hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.2%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
kauez
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · OVER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5SL28.5
≈ L5 26.6 · L20 27.6Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.72
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.9
9/18 hit at 28.5
Online · this match
15.5
0/2 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kauez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.675 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.8
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.2
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.1%
+7.4 →
Learned
55.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.7%387 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 47.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.75) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.1 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 59%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 30.1 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.8 vs line 28.5 → +0.3 (1.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.2 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.8
HS/Map
8.15
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.1
KAST
71.6%
HS%
59.1%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.5 · KPR 0.778 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Ancient)13.2 · KPR 0.642 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.675
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.85%
Final projected kills29.75
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 47.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~24 kills · 35r27.9%
Normal50.8%
~29 kills · 43r50.2%
Close maps10.3%
~31 kills · 45r56.6%
Overtime12.2%
~35 kills · 51r72.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.0% · live
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
+19% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.8r
-2% KPR here
Total
42.2r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 30.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 55% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 52.6% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 48.1% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 43.7% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 41.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
57.5%
K/D
1.32
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.64
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.9%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
73.3%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
8.2
KPR
0.41
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.59
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.4
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.65
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 19 Inferno 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 20 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 18 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 18 Cache 16-14 | 30 Mirage 19-16 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 27 Mirage 16-13 | 20 Inferno 22-19 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 19 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Nuke 2-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 18 Inferno 13-3 | 12 Mirage 13-2 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 9 Mirage 4-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 10 Cache 7-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 24 Mirage 13-8 | 9 Ancient 8-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Ancient 4-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 11 Overpass 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 18 Nuke 13-4 | 20 Inferno 12-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 20 Nuke 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ |







































































































































































