KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.63
Hit
42.8%
EV+
-25.9%
Edge
-0.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.81
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.9%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
#100Ranked 100 of 277 on the board

AWPer
AccuracyTG
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
LEAN · UNDER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5SL9.5
▼ L5 5.8 · L20 8.7LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.12
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
7.9
9/12 hit at 9.5
Online
9.9
5/8 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm AccuracyTG is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 29.3% HS): below 0.724 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
7.81
Raw edge
-1.7
Cons. hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.9%
Rating
4.3/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
9.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
54.4%
-5.4 →
Learned
49%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
44.4%72 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (8.68) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 7.8 headshots vs line 9.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 29%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 7.8 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 7.81 vs line 9.5 → -1.69 (-17.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.82
HS/Map
4.35
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.65
ADR
62.9
KAST
72.8%
HS%
29.3%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)4.4 · KPR 0.637 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)4.2 · KPR 0.698 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.724
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.81
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills29.61
× realistic HS% (29.3%)7.81
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-4.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 65.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~7 HS · 38r80.5%
Normal50.8%
~8 HS · 46r68.7%
Close maps10.3%
~8 HS · 48r65.2%
Overtime12.2%
~9 HS · 54r55.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
-2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+7% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 7.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 41.1% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 46.9% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 54.4% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 58.7% | |
| 11.5 Under | 61.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
35.5%
K/D
1.23
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.03
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
31.3%
K/D
0.98
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
30.2%
K/D
1.06
Cache
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
20.8%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.64
HS%
0%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Ancient 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 1 Ancient 13-7 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 1 Inferno 1-13 | 1 Cache 13-10 | 2 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 3 Dust2 5-13 | 4 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 1 Ancient 13-7 | 2 Dust2 6-13 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 10 Dust2 19-17 | 4 Inferno 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 6 Ancient 16-14 | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 0 Anubis 13-9 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 6 Cache 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 1 Ancient 7-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 2 Ancient 13-5 | 6 Inferno 12-16 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 3 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 2 Nuke 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 10 Nuke 22-20 | 4 Ancient 13-11 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 4 Ancient 14-16 | 0 Nuke 5-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Inferno 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 3 Cache 7-13 | 1 Inferno 13-4 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 2 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 4 Inferno 8-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































