KillsBetter playTake
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.03
Hit
61.2%
EV+
+5.9%
Edge
-4.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.6%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
AWPer
Jee
TYLOO vs Team Spirit
RISK · UNDER 8.5
▼ L5 8.4 · L20 9.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 8.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
44%
7/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±1.95
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.1
5/11 hit at 8.5
Online
9.2
2/5 hit at 8.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 8.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 10.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 8 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 34.5% HS): below 0.664 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
51%
EV+
-11.6%
Rating
1.2/10
Exp. rounds
37.1
Line
8.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51%
0 →
Learned
51%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 6.5-10.5
All players · Headshots
47.3%91 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 43.8% at this line
Game script fits · OT 1% (under 22%) · 37.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 11% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.0 headshots vs line 8.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 35%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.0 against a 8.5 line
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8 vs line 8.5 → -0.5 (-5.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 37.1 rounds · 2-0 69.9% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
13.22
HS/Map
4.56
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.6
ADR
65.5
KAST
70.5%
HS%
34.5%
Multi-kill
11.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)4.1 · KPR 0.67 · 18r
Map 2 (Ancient)3.9 · KPR 0.613 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.664
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.38%
Final projected kills23.19
× realistic HS% (34.5%)8
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 8.5. Model: 60.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.6%
~7 HS · 32r74.5%
Normal46.4%
~9 HS · 41r48.4%
Close maps10.6%
~9 HS · 41r49.5%
Overtime1.4%
~10 HS · 47r33.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 10.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 11% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
18r
+15% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
37.1r
2-0 sweep69.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 8.5 (Under) · avg 9.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
8.5
Nearby lines
| 6.5 Under | 19.2% | below BE |
| 7.5 Under | 33.4% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 51% | OFFERED |
| 9.5 Under | 62.4% | |
| 10.5 Under | 66.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 8.5
Line movement
first 8.5→offno change
- Pulled8.5Oct 25, 03:00 AM
- First seen8.5Oct 24, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
35.6%
K/D
1.39
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
38.4%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
32.6%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
32.2%
K/D
0.91
Cache
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.82
HS%
27.3%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
36.4%
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 10 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 2 Cache 7-13 | 9 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 0 Mirage 2-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 4 Anubis 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 3 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Ancient 11-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 3 Ancient 13-7 | 5 Mirage 13-6 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 1 Ancient 4-13 | 10 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 3 Mirage 13-2 | 6 Inferno 13-2 | 9 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 2 Inferno 10-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 4 Mirage 13-2 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 3 Ancient 13-3 | 4 Mirage 13-1 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 1 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 3 Nuke 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
