KillsRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.83
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.2%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
20.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
21.9
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.7%
Edge
+1.4
L10
40%
#116Ranked 116 of 277 on the board

Rifler
yiksrezo
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 20.5
BEST OVER · PP 20.5PP20.5UD21.5SL20.5
▲ L5 24.8 · L20 20.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 20.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±7.33
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
20.7
8/20 hit at 20.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm yiksrezo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 20.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 21+ HS (~31 kills at 67.8% HS): 0.706 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
21.9
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.7%
Rating
1.3/10
Exp. rounds
42.8
Line
20.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.9%
+6 →
Learned
59.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 18.5-22.5
All players · Headshots
55%60 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.65) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.1 headshots vs line 20.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 68%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 20.1 against a 20.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 21.9 vs line 20.5 → +1.4 (6.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.8 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
10.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.76
ADR
83.2
KAST
72.1%
HS%
67.8%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)10.4 · KPR 0.713 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)10.3 · KPR 0.734 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.706
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.59%
Final projected kills30.46
× realistic HS% (67.8%)21.9
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 20.5. Model: 57.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~18 HS · 36r34.1%
Normal51.1%
~23 HS · 44r58.7%
Close maps14.7%
~23 HS · 46r63.4%
Overtime7.8%
~27 HS · 52r77.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
21.8r
-6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21r
-3% KPR here
Total
42.8r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 20.5 (Over) · avg 20.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
20.5
Nearby lines
| 18.5 Over | 59.2% | |
| 19.5 Over | 56.8% | below BE |
| 20.5 Over | 53.9% | OFFERED |
| 21.5 Over | 50.7% | below BE |
| 22.5 Over | 45.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 20.5
Line movement
first 20.5→20.5no change
- First seen20.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Nuke
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.9%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.9
HS%
63.8%
K/D
1.35
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
78.9%
K/D
1.1
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.86
Cache
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.49
HS%
52.6%
K/D
0.73
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.2%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Saint Sinners | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 15 Ancient 13-7 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 14 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Cache 13-3 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Black Phoenix | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Anubis 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | ENCE | 9 Dust2 13-1 | 7 Mirage 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Omega | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Leo | 7 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Drama | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Azuolas | 15 Mirage 16-19 | 18 Anubis 13-11 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 4 Nuke 13-8 | 31 Anubis 19-16 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | BAKS | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Cache 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NAVI Junior | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Black Phoenix | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































