KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.45
Hit
35.1%
EV+
-39.1%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.46
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
-1.5
L10
50%
Rifler
XANTARES
Aurora vs Nemiga
LEAN · UNDER 17
BEST UNDER · PP 17PP17UD16.5
▲ L5 16.4 · L20 15.3LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 17 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.36
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.3
13/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm XANTARES is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 52.5% HS): below 0.758 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.46
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
17
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
48.7%
0 →
Learned
48.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 15-19
All players · Headshots
43.9%326 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 73% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 42.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 73% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.5 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.0 headshots vs line 17.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 52%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.0 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.46 vs line 17 → -1.54 (-9.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 59.1% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.62
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.68
ADR
80.1
KAST
72.5%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.1 · KPR 0.692 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.3 · KPR 0.692 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.758
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.37%
Final projected kills29.45
× realistic HS% (52.5%)15.46
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17. Model: 63.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.8%
~13 HS · 36r83.1%
Normal38.2%
~16 HS · 43r61.3%
Close maps22.8%
~17 HS · 46r51.4%
Overtime12.2%
~19 HS · 52r32%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 73% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
22.5r
-1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.2r
-1% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep59.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Under) · avg 17.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Under | 35.9% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 43.4% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 18 Under | 53.6% | below BE |
| 19 Under | 57.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
53%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
48.7%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.99
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.8%
K/D
1.02
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
51.7%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.44
HS%
64.5%
K/D
0.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | G2 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 9 Inferno 16-14 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 13 Inferno 16-12 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 15 Dust2 19-17 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-11 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 8 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Nuke 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 10 Cache 13-7 | 16 Mirage 19-17 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 2 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Inferno 16-19 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
