KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.22
Hit
41.2%
EV+
-28.6%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
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#261Ranked 261 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
FalleN
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 24.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP24.5UD24.5SL24.5
▲ L5 27.4 · L20 21.1Risk · Edge -0.3 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.76
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.1
13/20 hit at 24.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm FalleN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.521 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.22
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
41.2%
EV+
-28.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41.2%
-0.9 →
Learned
40.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
41.3%138 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.86) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.2 kills vs line 24.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 52%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.2 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.22 vs line 24.5 → -0.28 (-1.1%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.53
HS/Map
5.53
K/D
0.74
KPR
0.55
ADR
61.6
KAST
70.5%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.8 · KPR 0.517 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)11.1 · KPR 0.463 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.521
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills22.86
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~20 kills · 40r77.5%
Normal45%
~25 kills · 48r52.7%
Close maps20.8%
~26 kills · 50r43.5%
Overtime10%
~29 kills · 56r26.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
-15% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 23.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 34.2% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 37.7% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 41.2% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 44.7% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.96
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.43
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.62
Cache
6 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.41
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.6
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.47
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
48.8%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 19 Ancient 16-19 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 12 Cache 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-5 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 15 Nuke 13-7 | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Mirage 9-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 3 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 7 Mirage 13-5 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 5 Cache 5-13 | 10 Anubis 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 13 Cache 13-8 | 20 Mirage 16-19 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 9 Ancient 14-16 | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 12 Cache 11-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ |








































































































































































