KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.46
Hit
44%
EV+
-23.8%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17
Hit
40.4%
EV+
-30.0%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%
#245Ranked 245 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Tatu
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 26
BEST UNDER · UD 28.5PP26UD28.5
▼ L5 21.4 · L20 28.6Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 26 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.98
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.8
5/10 hit at 26
Online
32.4
3/10 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Tatu is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.557 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.46
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
44%
EV+
-23.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
46.7
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44%
-8.4 →
Learned
35.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 24-28
All players · Kills
43.3%201 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.8 kills vs line 26.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 65%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.8 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.46 vs line 26 → -0.54 (-2.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.7 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.3
HS/Map
9.25
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.57
ADR
64.2
KAST
72.9%
HS%
64.7%
Multi-kill
12.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.8 · KPR 0.636 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Cache)12.4 · KPR 0.534 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.557
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.32
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.44%
Final projected kills27.2
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26. Model: 52.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~21 kills · 39r74.4%
Normal40.6%
~25 kills · 46r54.5%
Close maps20.6%
~27 kills · 50r43.7%
Overtime14.4%
~31 kills · 56r28.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Dust2
23.4r
+12% KPR here
M2 Cache
23.3r
-6% KPR here
Total
46.7r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Under) · avg 24.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Under | 34.1% | below BE |
| 25 Under | 37% | below BE |
| 26 Under | 44% | OFFERED |
| 27 Under | 49% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 53.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26→26no change
- First seen26Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1.02
Cache
9 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
67%
K/D
0.75
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
62%
K/D
1.19
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.82
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 13 Cache 13-8 | 24 Dust2 22-18 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 18 Anubis 16-14 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 8 Cache 7-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 4 Inferno 2-13 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 7 Cache 11-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 14 Cache 13-9 | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Cache 13-7 | 19 Dust2 13-3 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Yawara | 28 Dust2 16-13 | 39 Anubis 16-19 | 67 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Grêmio | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | DAMAJUANA | 13 Mirage 13-4 | 19 Nuke 13-4 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Isurus | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 21 Inferno 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Imperial | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Peladona | 9 Dust2 3-13 | 22 Mirage 14-16 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-16 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 14 Cache 10-13 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | ALKA | 7 Cache 7-13 | 23 Dust2 8-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | METANOIA Wolves | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-10 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 16 Cache 16-13 | 22 Anubis 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































