KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.28
Hit
45.5%
EV+
-21.3%
Edge
-1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.56
Hit
41.1%
EV+
-28.8%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%
#235Ranked 235 of 277 on the board

Rifler
drop
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · UNDER 30.5
BEST UNDER · PP 30.5PP30.5UD28.5
▲ L5 29.6 · L20 27.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.54
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.8
11/18 hit at 30.5
Online · this match
21
2/2 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm drop is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.69 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.28
Raw edge
-1.2
Cons. hit
45.5%
EV+
-21.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.5%
+8.7 →
Learned
54.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.14) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.8 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 61%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 31.8 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.28 vs line 30.5 → -1.22 (-4.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.57
HS/Map
8.25
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.69
ADR
79.6
KAST
73.8%
HS%
60.8%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14 · KPR 0.629 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Ancient)15.2 · KPR 0.702 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.69
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.39
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.85%
Final projected kills29.14
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 55.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~25 kills · 37r77.9%
Normal50.8%
~30 kills · 45r56%
Close maps10.3%
~31 kills · 47r49.6%
Overtime12.2%
~35 kills · 53r33.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
22.4r
-9% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.8r
+1% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 31.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 40.5% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 43% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 45.5% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 47.9% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 50.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
68.8%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
60%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
61.9%
K/D
0.95
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
49.1%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.9
HS%
55.6%
K/D
2
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.42
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 19 Inferno 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 20 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 18 Cache 13-5 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 26 Cache 16-14 | 19 Mirage 19-16 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 24 Mirage 16-13 | 25 Inferno 22-19 | 49 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Nuke 2-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 7 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 13 Cache 7-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 19 Ancient 8-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Ancient 4-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 8 Overpass 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 18 Nuke 13-7 | 18 Anubis 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 7 Nuke 13-4 | 17 Inferno 12-16 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































