KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.73
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.9%
Edge
+0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.59
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.9%
Edge
+0.6
L10
60%
#101Ranked 101 of 277 on the board

Rifler
MATYS
G2 vs Aurora
RISK · OVER 26
BEST OVER · PP 26PP26UD26.5SL26.5
≈ L5 28.6 · L20 27.8Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
High
±9.15
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 29 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
30
Over 26 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
28
Over 26 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.8
13/20 hit at 26
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MATYS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.596 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.73
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.9%
Rating
3/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.4%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
56.7%201 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.92) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.2 kills vs line 26.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 67%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.2 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.73 vs line 26 → +0.73 (2.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
9.25
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.65
ADR
70.3
KAST
74%
HS%
66.5%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.2 · KPR 0.628 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.7 · KPR 0.562 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.596
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.89
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills25.92
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 53.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~23 kills · 37r27.9%
Normal46.3%
~26 kills · 43r45.4%
Close maps14.1%
~29 kills · 47r56.2%
Overtime16.7%
~32 kills · 53r71.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
-14% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 29.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Over | 58.8% | |
| 25 Over | 56.7% | below BE |
| 26 Over | 54.4% | OFFERED |
| 27 Over | 51.8% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 49.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26→26no change
- First seen26Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.62
HS%
65.4%
K/D
0.91
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.53
HS%
67%
K/D
0.86
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
67.3%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
65.3%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
66.2%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.49
HS%
67.5%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
75%
K/D
1.23
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 18 Dust2 19-22 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 22 Dust2 13-6 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 11 Ancient 13-1 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 4 Cache 7-13 | 11 Inferno 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 18 Mirage 7-13 | 20 Anubis 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 27 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 26 Inferno 13-9 | 12 Ancient 13-4 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 9 Cache 8-13 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 26 Mirage 19-17 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 17 Inferno 6-13 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 23 Inferno 19-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Cache 9-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 17 Anubis 16-12 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 7 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 12 Cache 13-5 | 19 Ancient 13-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































