KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.15
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Edge
+2.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.38
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.7%
Edge
+0.9
L10
70%
Rifler
xelex
MOUZ vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 28
BEST OVER · PP 28PP28UD28.5
▼ L5 27.2 · L20 29.6Risk · Edge +2.2 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 28 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.95
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.6
10/20 hit at 28
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xelex is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.697 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (36.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.15
Raw edge
+2.1
Cons. hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Rating
3.3/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
28
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.8%
0 →
Learned
52.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 26-30
All players · Kills
56.3%430 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 40.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 36% (under 40%) · team 76% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.4 kills vs line 28.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 68%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.4 against a 28.0 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.15 vs line 28 → +2.15 (7.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.82
HS/Map
10.03
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.68
ADR
74.5
KAST
72.5%
HS%
67.6%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.9 · KPR 0.746 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.2 · KPR 0.766 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.697
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.76%
Final projected kills30.15
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28. Model: 62.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps36.4%
~25 kills · 34r26.3%
Normal32.8%
~32 kills · 42r69.2%
Close maps16.4%
~32 kills · 43r73.3%
Overtime14.4%
~37 kills · 49r91.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.2r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20r
+10% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Over) · avg 29.4 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
28
Nearby lines
| 26 Over | 59.8% | |
| 27 Over | 57.5% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 52.8% | OFFERED |
| 29 Over | 49.5% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 46% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 28→28no change
- First seen28Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.74
HS%
64%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
71.9%
K/D
1.33
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
67%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
63.9%
K/D
0.8
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
71.2%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
69.2%
K/D
1.16
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 9z | 14 Dust2 13-5 | 11 Nuke 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 22 Ancient 16-13 | 12 Inferno 12-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 12 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 14 Inferno 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 18 Dust2 13-5 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-4 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 18 Cache 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 8 Cache 8-13 | 34 Mirage 19-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 10-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 20 Cache 11-13 | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 23 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 15 Nuke 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 14 Ancient 13-4 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 11 Cache 13-4 | 20 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 25 Dust2 13-16 | 9 Ancient 5-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Ancient 19-22 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 14 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 14 Nuke 16-12 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
