KillsLean
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.07
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.9%
Edge
-2.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.61
Hit
63.9%
EV+
+10.7%
Edge
-1.9
L10
70%
#8Ranked 8 of 277 on the board

AWPer
meyern
9z vs MOUZ
LEAN · UNDER 10.5
BEST UNDER · PP 10.5PP10.5UD9.5
▼ L5 9.0 · L20 9.4LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.28
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 4-13 · Nuke 7-13 · L
10
Under 10.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.4
13/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm meyern is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 36.7% HS): below 0.705 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.61
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
63.9%
EV+
+10.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
10.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
63.9%
-2.8 →
Learned
61.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 79.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (8.44) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.7 headshots vs line 10.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 37%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.7 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 8.61 vs line 10.5 → -1.89 (-18.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.88
HS/Map
4.72
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.57
ADR
58
KAST
75.2%
HS%
36.7%
Multi-kill
12.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)3.8 · KPR 0.537 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)4.7 · KPR 0.608 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.705
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.31
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills23.01
× realistic HS% (36.7%)8.61
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 79.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.9%
~7 HS · 34r87.9%
Normal47.6%
~9 HS · 42r71.2%
Close maps12.5%
~9 HS · 43r67.8%
Overtime10%
~11 HS · 49r52.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
M2 Mirage
21.2r
+13% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 8.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 45.5% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 57.3% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 63.9% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 66.5% | |
| 12.5 Under | 67.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- First seen10.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.8%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.67
HS%
35.3%
K/D
1.29
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
27.3%
K/D
0.92
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
38.9%
K/D
1.01
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
38.6%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.56
HS%
28.1%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 2 Cache 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 4 Cache 11-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 3 Nuke 13-1 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 5 Nuke 13-10 | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 1 Dust2 3-13 | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 1 Ancient 8-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 2 Nuke 7-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 6 Cache 13-3 | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 5 Nuke 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 8 Ancient 17-19 | 1 Dust2 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 2 Dust2 6-13 | 6 Mirage 16-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 2 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Inferno 13-10 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Inferno 17-19 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 9 Mirage 16-13 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































