CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.27
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.6%
Edge
-1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.43
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.5%
Edge
-0.6
L10
60%
vision
Rifler
vision
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
48%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 26.5
▼ L5 25.2 · L20 27.8Risk · Edge -1.2 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.39
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
0/1 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
27
Over 26.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.5
1/4 hit at 26.5
Online
28.2
8/15 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm vision is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.648 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.27
Raw edge
-1.2
Cons. hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.6%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.1%
0 →
Learned
48.1%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
42.8%402 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge -1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 40.9 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 26% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.5 kills vs line 26.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 25.5 against a 26.5 line

  • 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 25.27 vs line 26.5 → -1.23 (-4.6%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
  • • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 63.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.3
KAST
70.6%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
12.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13 · KPR 0.662 · 20r
Map 2 (Inferno)12.3 · KPR 0.596 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.648
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.7
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.67%
Final projected kills25.27
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 59% before the safety haircut.
1112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142line 26.5
Lopsided maps40.5%
~21 kills · 35r85.7%
Normal27.3%
~28 kills · 45r43.6%
Close maps24.4%
~27 kills · 44r45.5%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 50r21.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #143VRS #136HLTV #142VRS #123
Ground Zero 26%74% Off Chops
Win chance source: Polymarket 26.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 26% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
20r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep63.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.5%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 25.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
24.5 Under37.4%below BE
25.5 Under41.8%below BE
26.5 Under48.1%OFFERED
27.5 Under54.2%below BE
28.5 Under59.2%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
  1. Pulled26
    Oct 25, 10:14 PM
  2. Moved down26.5 → 26
    Oct 25, 03:45 PM
  3. First seen26.5
    Oct 24, 01:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.72
HS%
62.2%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
55.8%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.83
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-16Off Chops10 Dust2 6-1317 Anubis 13-1127SplitOver ✗
2026-10-16Abyssal17 Inferno 13-312 Ancient 6-1329SplitOver ✗BO
2026-10-11Abyssal13 Inferno 8-139 Nuke 7-1322LUnder ✓
2026-10-11FlyQuest13 Anubis 10-1315 Inferno 10-1328LOver ✗
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER8 Inferno 8-1312 Dust2 9-1320LUnder ✓
2026-09-27Rooster10 Anubis 6-1320 Nuke 13-1130SplitOver ✗
2026-09-26Abyssal14 Inferno 13-1121 Dust2 12-1635SplitOver ✗OT
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER8 Ancient 4-137 Dust2 3-1315LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER18 Dust2 8-135 Inferno 1-1323LUnder ✓BO
2026-08-31Arcade12 Nuke 13-314 Dust2 13-1026WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER11 Nuke 5-1314 Inferno 13-1125SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-08-28Rooster11 Anubis 13-425 Nuke 19-1536WOver ✗OTBO
2026-08-26LFO 819 Ancient 13-1018 Dust2 13-337WOver ✗BO
2026-08-13Abyssal9 Ancient 13-114 Anubis 13-823WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-12Mindfreak13 Inferno 13-613 Dust2 13-626WUnder ✓
2026-08-10Mindfreak22 Nuke 13-1013 Anubis 13-435WOver ✗BO
2026-08-06Abyssal15 Mirage 13-020 Dust2 13-1135WOver ✗BO
2026-08-05Time Waves23 Inferno 19-1711 Nuke 13-334WOver ✗OTBO
2026-06-11Ding Cuts14 Mirage 13-99 Nuke 13-123WUnder ✓BO
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