KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.62
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Edge
-0.9
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.11
Hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.7%
Edge
-0.4
L10
80%
Rifler
dgt
9z vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5
▼ L5 12.0 · L20 15.7Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±2.9
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
2/2 hit · avg 13.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 13-10 · Mirage 13-2 · W
16
Under 16.5 ✓
2026-07-09 · XSE Pro League 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Mirage 7-13 · Split
11
Under 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.7
13/20 hit at 16.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dgt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 53.4% HS): below 0.815 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.11
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.7%
Rating
2.1/10
Exp. rounds
37.9
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.8%
0 →
Learned
49.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
42.2%329 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.9% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 37.9 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 77% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.3 headshots vs line 16.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.3 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.11 vs line 16.5 → -0.39 (-2.4%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 37.9 rounds · 2-0 61.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.7
HS/Map
7.85
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.7
ADR
79.4
KAST
76.6%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
16.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.8 · KPR 0.772 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.8 · KPR 0.796 · 18.6r
Required KPR to clear0.815
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.71
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.82%
Final projected kills29.17
× realistic HS% (53.4%)16.11
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 56.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.5%
~14 HS · 32r79.1%
Normal44.2%
~17 HS · 41r43.5%
Close maps10.5%
~17 HS · 41r44.8%
Overtime7.8%
~20 HS · 47r24.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 76.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
19.3r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
18.6r
+5% KPR here
Total
37.9r
2-0 sweep61.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 13.3 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 43.3% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 49.8% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 55.8% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 60.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.4%
K/D
1.08
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.22
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
10.9
KPR
0.56
HS%
56.6%
K/D
0.88
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
51.1%
K/D
1.33
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.4%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.05
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | MOUZ | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 9 Nuke 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 2 Cache 11-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 4 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 5 Nuke 13-1 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 2 Inferno 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-2 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 10 Cache 13-3 | 14 Nuke 13-4 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 6 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 15 Ancient 17-19 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Mirage 16-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 19 Inferno 17-19 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ |
