KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.68
Hit
54.6%
EV+
-5.5%
Edge
-1.8
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.5
Hit
46.3%
EV+
-19.8%
Edge
-0.5
L10
60%
#225Ranked 225 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Dytor
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 15
BEST UNDER · SL 15.5PP15SL15.5
▼ L5 13.4 · L20 14.8Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.08
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.6
3/5 hit at 15
Online · this match
14.9
8/14 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Dytor is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 53% HS): below 0.639 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.5
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
46.3%
EV+
-19.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
55%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13-17
All players · Headshots
38.6%241 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.98) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.9 headshots vs line 14.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 53%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.9 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.5 vs line 15 → -0.5 (-3.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
7.39
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.66
ADR
75.6
KAST
75.5%
HS%
53%
Multi-kill
15%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.5 · KPR 0.649 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.653 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.639
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.84
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.01%
Final projected kills28.26
× realistic HS% (53%)14.5
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15. Model: 56.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~12 HS · 37r75.1%
Normal47.8%
~15 HS · 46r45.2%
Close maps17.7%
~16 HS · 47r41.7%
Overtime5.8%
~18 HS · 53r25%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
22.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Under) · avg 14.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Under | 23.4% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 46.3% | OFFERED |
| 16 Under | 53.6% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 60.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 14→15+1
- Moved up14 → 15Oct 25, 01:01 AM
- Moved down15 → 14Oct 25, 01:01 AM
- Moved up14 → 15Oct 25, 01:00 AM
- First seen14Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.64
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
56%
K/D
0.97
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.56
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.4%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.51
HS%
45.2%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 2 Cache 6-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Cache 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Cache 3-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Cache 13-4 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 10 Inferno 13-1 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 14 Ancient 16-14 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INFINITE | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | INFINITE | 6 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | INFINITE | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | INFINITE | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 1 Nuke 7-13 | 12 Cache 16-19 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Phoenix | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | INFINITE | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | INFINITE | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































