KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.44
Hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.3%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.17
Hit
40.5%
EV+
-29.9%
Edge
+0.7
L10
50%
#255Ranked 255 of 277 on the board

Rifler
nbqq
BRUTE vs INFINITE
RISK · UNDER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5SL28.5
▼ L5 26.6 · L20 29.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±11.23
Previous meeting · vs INFINITE
No meeting with INFINITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.3
4/8 hit at 28.5
Online · this match
29.6
5/12 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nbqq is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.654 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.44
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.5%
-4.6 →
Learned
37.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.22) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.3 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 51%. Next: vs INFINITE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 29.3 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.44 vs line 28.5 → -0.06 (-0.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 72.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.53
HS/Map
7.38
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.68
ADR
78.8
KAST
72.3%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
15.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)13.9 · KPR 0.66 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.3 · KPR 0.697 · 22.2r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.6
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.27%
Final projected kills29.22
INFINITE gives up (70 series)+8.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 50.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.4%
~24 kills · 37r71.4%
Normal42.9%
~29 kills · 45r52.1%
Close maps12.3%
~30 kills · 47r47.2%
Overtime14.4%
~34 kills · 53r33.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 55% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.2r
+3% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep72.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 29.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 36.3% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 38.4% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 42.5% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 44.7% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 46.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.91
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
60%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
40%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.85
HS%
62.9%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | INOX Division | 11 Nuke 13-3 | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 8 Cache 8-13 | 6 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 14 Nuke 13-4 | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 18 Mirage 13-16 | 28 Inferno 19-16 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 15 Inferno 16-13 | 21 Dust2 13-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 24 Mirage 10-13 | 45 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 15 Mirage 13-1 | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 12 Cache 16-12 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 26 Anubis 16-14 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 12 Cache 7-13 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 20 Anubis 13-8 | 20 Dust2 13-4 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 7 Mirage 3-13 | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































