KillsBetter playRisk
Line
35.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
33.77
Hit
48%
EV+
-16.9%
Edge
-1.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.69
Hit
37.6%
EV+
-34.9%
Edge
-0.3
L10
30%
AWPer
ZywOo
Vitality vs FUT
RISK · UNDER 15
BEST UNDER · PP 15PP15UD14.5
≈ L5 14.6 · L20 15.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 15 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.21
Previous meeting · vs FUT
1/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 13-7 · Dust2 13-8 · W
12
Under 15 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.2
8/20 hit at 15
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ZywOo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 43.5% HS): below 0.889 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.69
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
37.6%
EV+
-34.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
38.8
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
37.6%
0 →
Learned
37.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 13-17
All players · Headshots
41.8%397 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 75% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 38.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 75% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 1.5 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 15.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.88, HS 44%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.69 vs line 15 → -0.31 (-2.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 38.8 rounds · 2-0 57% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.4
HS/Map
7.58
K/D
1.49
KPR
0.88
ADR
92.2
KAST
80.5%
HS%
43.5%
Multi-kill
22.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)6.9 · KPR 0.839 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Cache)7.7 · KPR 0.917 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.889
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills33.77
× realistic HS% (43.5%)14.69
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15. Model: 52.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.1%
~12 HS · 33r70.6%
Normal45.2%
~15 HS · 40r47.9%
Close maps18.9%
~16 HS · 42r43.4%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 48r27.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 75% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.2r
-7% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.6r
+2% KPR here
Total
38.8r
2-0 sweep57%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Under | 28.5% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 33% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 37.6% | OFFERED |
| 16 Under | 42.1% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 48.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15→15no change
- First seen15Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
45.2%
K/D
1.29
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.94
HS%
35.9%
K/D
1.93
Cache
8 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.9
HS%
48%
K/D
1.77
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.84
HS%
43.2%
K/D
1.31
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
43%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.49
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | The MongolZ | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-3 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Cache 13-10 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 14 Cache 13-8 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 1 Inferno 13-2 | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 2 Anubis 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 10 Dust2 13-1 | 8 Cache 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-5 | 11 Anubis 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 7 Nuke 16-14 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 2 Anubis 8-13 | 5 Cache 13-16 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 11 Nuke 16-14 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
