KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.57
Hit
55%
EV+
-4.7%
Edge
+1.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.44
Hit
48.9%
EV+
-15.2%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%
#87Ranked 87 of 277 on the board

Rifler
yuurih
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 25.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP25.5UD25.5SL25.5
▲ L5 27.2 · L20 23.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.46
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
23.9
8/20 hit at 25.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm yuurih is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.543 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (24.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.57
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
55%
EV+
-4.7%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
57%207 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.29) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.0 kills vs line 25.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 49%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 25.0 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.57 vs line 25.5 → +1.07 (4.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.95
HS/Map
5.83
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.59
ADR
67.8
KAST
74.9%
HS%
48.7%
Multi-kill
13.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.5 · KPR 0.548 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)13.8 · KPR 0.577 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.543
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.45
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills26.29
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 57.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~22 kills · 40r24.8%
Normal45%
~27 kills · 48r58.6%
Close maps20.8%
~28 kills · 50r69.5%
Overtime10%
~32 kills · 56r86.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
-7% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
-2% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 25.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 24.5 Over | 60.1% | |
| 25.5 Over | 55% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 50.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 44.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.54
HS%
49.2%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.86
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.57
HS%
37.9%
K/D
0.88
Cache
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.52
HS%
49.3%
K/D
0.86
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.55
HS%
57.7%
K/D
1
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 20 Ancient 16-19 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 14 Cache 10-13 | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 19 Nuke 11-13 | 10 Inferno 6-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 18 Mirage 13-5 | 20 Cache 16-14 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 5 Cache 5-13 | 12 Anubis 8-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-8 | 19 Mirage 16-19 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 15 Ancient 14-16 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 10 Ancient 13-2 | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 13 Cache 11-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































