KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.02
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
+2.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.1
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.1%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%

Rifler
KSCERATO
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 17
BEST OVER · PP 17PP17UD17.5SL17.5
▲ L5 18.6 · L20 16.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.37
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.6
9/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KSCERATO is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~35 kills at 51.2% HS): 0.706 KPR over ~47 rounds. His Kills line is 33: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (24.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.1
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.1%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.2%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
59.7%191 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.89) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.7 headshots vs line 17.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 51%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.7 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.1 vs line 17 → +1.1 (6.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.25
HS/Map
8.32
K/D
1.26
KPR
0.72
ADR
79.9
KAST
75.3%
HS%
51.2%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.5 · KPR 0.73 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)9.4 · KPR 0.765 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.706
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.15
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills34.94
× realistic HS% (51.2%)18.1
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 58.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~15 HS · 40r29.2%
Normal45%
~18 HS · 48r53.8%
Close maps20.8%
~19 HS · 50r62.2%
Overtime10%
~22 HS · 56r77%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
+1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 15.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 60.8% | |
| 16 Over | 58% | |
| 17 Over | 54.2% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 45.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
49.1%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.44
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
18.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.33
Cache
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.62
HS%
48.8%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.84
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.4
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.4
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.14
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Ancient 16-19 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Inferno 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 5 Cache 10-13 | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 6 Nuke 11-13 | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 1 Inferno 13-3 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 13 Cache 16-14 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 5 Cache 5-13 | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 9 Cache 13-8 | 14 Mirage 16-19 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 14 Ancient 14-16 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 3 Cache 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































