CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
36.28
Hit
58.9%
EV+
+2.0%
Edge
+3.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.77
Hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.1%
Edge
+1.3
L10
80%
El1an
AWPer
El1an
INOX Division vs Acend
61%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 9.5
▲ L5 11.4 · L20 10.1Risk · Edge +1.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 9.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.36
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
10.1
13/20 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm El1an is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 10+ HS (~34 kills at 29.7% HS): 0.668 KPR over ~48 rounds. His Kills line is 32.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51%) or blowout (25.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.77
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
47.9
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
61.3%
0 →
Learned
61.3%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
49.3%140 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +1.3 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 47.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 26% (under 40%) · team 62% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 0.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.5 headshots vs line 9.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 30%. Next: vs Acend, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 11.5 against a 9.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
  • • Model 10.77 vs line 9.5 → +1.27 (13.4%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
  • • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
  • • Expected 47.9 rounds · 2-0 51% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.98
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.3
KPR
0.77
ADR
82.6
KAST
73.4%
HS%
29.7%
Multi-kill
20.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.4 · KPR 0.754 · 24r
Map 2 (Mirage)5.4 · KPR 0.759 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.668
Base kills (Maps 1-2)36.24
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.12%
Final projected kills36.28
× realistic HS% (29.7%)10.77
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 9.5. Model: 61.5% before the safety haircut.
123456789101112131415161718192021222324line 9.5
Lopsided maps25.8%
~9 HS · 40r41.5%
Normal51.7%
~11 HS · 48r59.7%
Close maps5.8%
~12 HS · 51r65.6%
Overtime16.7%
~13 HS · 57r75.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 6:00 AM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
HLTV #84VRS #87HLTV #131VRS #75
INOX Division 62%38% Acend
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 62% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.9r
+1% KPR here
Total
47.9r
2-0 sweep51%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.8%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Over) · avg 11.5 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
7.5 Over65.3%
8.5 Over63.8%
9.5 Over61.3%OFFERED
10.5 Over53.8%below BE
11.5 Over46.4%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→offno change
  1. Pulled9.5
    Oct 25, 05:57 AM
  2. First seen9.5
    Oct 24, 09:22 PM
Map stats
Dust2
20 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.78
HS%
27.9%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
23.2%
K/D
1.37
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
36%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.86
HS%
41%
K/D
1.69
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
29.5%
K/D
1.52
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
38%
K/D
1.02
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-24BRUTE2 Nuke 3-139 Dust2 13-511SplitOver ✓BO
2026-10-23Aces6 Dust2 7-1313 Nuke 13-819SplitOver ✓
2026-09-26FOKUS7 Dust2 16-147 Cache 7-1314SplitOver ✓OT
2026-09-23SPARTA5 Dust2 13-105 Mirage 13-310WOver ✓BO
2026-09-21BRUTE1 Dust2 10-132 Mirage 7-133LUnder ✗
2026-09-20SPARTA5 Dust2 13-115 Inferno 16-1210WOver ✓OT
2026-09-18Color2 Dust2 11-135 Mirage 13-167LUnder ✗OT
2026-09-16SPARTA12 Ancient 16-195 Dust2 13-517SplitOver ✓OTBO
2026-09-12Color3 Inferno 7-139 Dust2 13-1112SplitOver ✓
2026-09-09Leo7 Dust2 13-75 Nuke 5-1312SplitOver ✓BO
2026-09-06SPARTA3 Cache 13-62 Dust2 13-25WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-04SPARTA6 Dust2 13-66 Mirage 20-1912WOver ✓OT
2026-08-29SPARTA4 Mirage 13-42 Dust2 13-76WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-28SPARTA4 Ancient 7-133 Dust2 13-97SplitUnder ✗
2026-08-26SPARTA2 Dust2 11-135 Inferno 13-77SplitUnder ✗
2026-08-23Color7 Dust2 22-194 Mirage 13-811WOver ✓OT
2026-08-21SPARTA3 Ancient 13-97 Dust2 13-1010WOver ✓
2026-08-20SPARTA2 Dust2 11-133 Cache 13-45SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-08-20SPARTA6 Dust2 13-165 Nuke 13-311SplitOver ✓OTBO
2026-08-19PCIFIC8 Dust2 13-105 Inferno 13-613WOver ✓
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