KillsLean
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26
Hit
52.2%
EV+
-9.6%
Edge
-3.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playNeutral
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.22
Hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.0%
Edge
-2.8
L10
60%

Rifler
Lack1
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
NEUTRAL · UNDER 17
BEST UNDER · PP 17PP17UD16.5SL16.5
▼ L5 13.6 · L20 14.6
Hit rates at 17 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.42
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
14.6
13/20 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Lack1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 55.7% HS): below 0.706 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.22
Raw edge
-2.8
Cons. hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.0%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
43.2
Line
17
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
55.4%
0 →
Learned
55.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 15-19
All players · Headshots
43.3%215 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Under risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.48) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.7 headshots vs line 17.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 56%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 13.7 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.22 vs line 17 → -2.78 (-16.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.2 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.05
HS/Map
7.28
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.59
ADR
67.4
KAST
68.8%
HS%
55.7%
Multi-kill
13%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.631 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Ancient)7 · KPR 0.59 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.706
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.42%
Final projected kills26
× realistic HS% (55.7%)14.22
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17. Model: 67.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~12 HS · 36r80.3%
Normal57.5%
~15 HS · 44r65.9%
Close maps10.5%
~15 HS · 46r62.2%
Overtime7.8%
~17 HS · 52r50.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
+8% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
+1% KPR here
Total
43.2r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Under) · avg 13.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Under | 48.9% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 52.4% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 55.4% | OFFERED |
| 18 Under | 57.9% | |
| 19 Under | 61.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.64
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.92
Cache
7 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.53
HS%
64.8%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.85
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
46.6%
K/D
0.79
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 6 Dust2 13-16 | 3 Anubis 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 2 Cache 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 12 Mirage 19-16 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 16 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 10 Cache 13-9 | 8 Anubis 16-13 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-0 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 1 Dust2 0-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 5 Anubis 6-13 | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 6 Cache 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 6 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 17 | W | Under ✗ |









































































































































































