KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.6
Hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.6%
Edge
-0.4
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.38
Hit
52.6%
EV+
-9.0%
Edge
-0.6
L10
80%
#182Ranked 182 of 277 on the board

Rifler
snow
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 30
BEST UNDER · PP 30PP30UD29.5
≈ L5 28.0 · L20 28.8Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±3.0 +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
68%
13/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±10.61
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.6
11/15 hit at 30
Online
29.5
2/4 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm snow is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.654 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.6
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.3%
-8.6 →
Learned
40.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28-32
All players · Kills
44.1%270 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 68.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.28) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.0 kills vs line 30.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 50%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.0 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.6 vs line 30 → -0.4 (-1.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.39
HS/Map
7.13
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.64
ADR
74.4
KAST
75%
HS%
49.5%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)15.2 · KPR 0.679 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.1 · KPR 0.651 · 23.4r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.74%
Final projected kills30.28
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30. Model: 51.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.3%
~25 kills · 39r71.9%
Normal44.5%
~30 kills · 46r53.2%
Close maps21.7%
~32 kills · 49r45.4%
Overtime10.5%
~36 kills · 55r31.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Cache
22.5r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.4r
+1% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Under) · avg 28.0 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Under | 40.9% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 45.1% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 49.3% | OFFERED |
| 31 Under | 51.5% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 53.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
46.3%
K/D
1.06
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.65
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.61
HS%
55.3%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.98
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 21 Cache 13-8 | 32 Dust2 22-18 | 53 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 11 Inferno 3-13 | 18 Anubis 16-14 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 9 Cache 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 4 Inferno 2-13 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 14 Cache 11-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 16 Cache 13-9 | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 16 Cache 13-7 | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 22 Anubis 13-10 | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 11 Anubis 10-13 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Anubis 13-6 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 14 Dust2 6-13 | 11 Cache 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 20 Cache 11-13 | 7 Nuke 4-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 19 Nuke 9-13 | 20 Mirage 11-13 | 39 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 7 Mirage 2-13 | 15 Cache 6-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 12 Inferno 4-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 20 Nuke 13-10 | 20 Inferno 17-19 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 21 Mirage 16-14 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 20 Inferno 13-11 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 12 Cache 10-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































