KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.56
Hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.2%
Edge
-2.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.59
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.7%
Edge
-1.4
L10
30%
Rifler
s1ren
BetBoom vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 16
BEST UNDER · UD 16.5PP16UD16.5
▲ L5 19.0 · L20 16.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.12
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
8/19 hit at 16
Online
24
0/1 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm s1ren is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 37.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 57.1% HS): below 0.683 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.59
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.5%
0 →
Learned
47.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
44%400 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 3/10 at this line · projection 2.8 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 19% (under 22%) · 41.0 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 38% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 2.8 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.4 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 57%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.4 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.59 vs line 16 → -1.41 (-8.8%)
- • Form L5 0% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 54.4% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.22
HS/Map
8.12
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.68
ADR
75.1
KAST
72.4%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.5 · KPR 0.579 · 19.6r
Map 2 (Anubis)8.1 · KPR 0.663 · 21.4r
Required KPR to clear0.683
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.54
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.09%
Final projected kills25.56
× realistic HS% (57.1%)14.59
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 60.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.8%
~12 HS · 34r78.4%
Normal26.9%
~14 HS · 39r64.9%
Close maps24.4%
~16 HS · 44r51.9%
Overtime18.9%
~18 HS · 50r35.3%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 37.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 38% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
19.6r
-12% KPR here
M2 Anubis
21.4r
Total
41r
2-0 sweep54.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 17.4 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 38.3% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 42.9% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 47.5% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 55.7% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 61.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.57
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
48.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.96
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.64
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Nemiga | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Ancient 19-16 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 6 Anubis 5-13 | 11 Dust2 16-14 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 10 Nuke 16-13 | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 5 Nuke 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 18 Cache 16-14 | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 5 Mirage 5-13 | 9 Cache 14-16 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 15 Anubis 13-16 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Anubis 16-14 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 11 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 8 Cache 13-8 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | SPARTA | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 14 Dust2 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 2 Cache 2-13 | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 3 Mirage 10-13 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-17 | Legacy | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
