KillsBetter playTake
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.75
Hit
60.5%
EV+
+4.9%
Edge
-5.8
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.81
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Edge
-2.7
L10
60%
Rifler
PR
MOUZ vs The MongolZ
LEAN · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5
▲ L5 15.4 · L20 14.1LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.83
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.1
11/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm PR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 51.9% HS): below 0.695 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.81
Raw edge
-2.7
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Rating
4.9/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
14.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.1%
0 →
Learned
57.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
40.9%428 picks
This player
0%3 picks
Warning: PR is 0-3 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 40.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 76% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.5 headshots vs line 14.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 52%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.5 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.81 vs line 14.5 → -2.69 (-18.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.57
HS/Map
7.05
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.61
ADR
69
KAST
78.1%
HS%
51.9%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.2 · KPR 0.597 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.6 · KPR 0.542 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.695
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.9
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.67%
Final projected kills22.75
× realistic HS% (51.9%)11.81
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 75.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps36.4%
~10 HS · 34r91.6%
Normal32.8%
~12 HS · 42r73.5%
Close maps16.4%
~13 HS · 43r70.9%
Overtime14.4%
~14 HS · 49r53%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.2r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20r
-14% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 44.2% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 57.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 60.4% | |
| 16.5 Under | 64.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
49.6%
K/D
0.93
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.49
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.78
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.02
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.3%
K/D
1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.81
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 9z | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Nuke 13-3 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 10 Ancient 16-13 | 7 Inferno 12-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 7 Cache 8-13 | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 2 Mirage 13-11 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 5 Cache 13-4 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 4 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 19-16 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 10-13 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 6 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 9 Ancient 13-4 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 5 Dust2 13-16 | 3 Ancient 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Ancient 19-22 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 16 Nuke 16-12 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
