KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.62
Hit
53.2%
EV+
-7.8%
Edge
+1.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.54
Hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.3%
Edge
+1.5
L10
20%

Rifler
Jimpphat
Aurora vs G2
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30UD29.5SL29.5
≈ L5 30.0 · L20 30.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±8.18
Previous meeting · vs G2
1/1 hit · avg 38 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 13-7 · Inferno 16-19 · Split
38
Over 30 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.5
9/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jimpphat is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.636 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (25.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.62
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
53.2%
EV+
-7.8%
Rating
2.3/10
Exp. rounds
47.2
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.2%
+8.5 →
Learned
61.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
55.9%270 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.31) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.8 kills vs line 30.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 57%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.8 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.62 vs line 30 → +1.62 (5.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.2 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.25
HS/Map
8.62
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.69
ADR
72.9
KAST
74%
HS%
56.6%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)16.4 · KPR 0.674 · 24.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.9 · KPR 0.703 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.636
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.47
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.49%
Final projected kills32.31
G2 gives up (86 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 57.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.1%
~27 kills · 40r26.7%
Normal39.9%
~32 kills · 47r53.9%
Close maps22.8%
~34 kills · 51r65.3%
Overtime12.2%
~38 kills · 57r81.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
24.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
47.2r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 29.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 61% | |
| 29 Over | 57.6% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 53.2% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 48.4% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 43.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.67
HS%
58.9%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
60.5%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.82
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.27
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
47.1%
K/D
1.27
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.98
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 35 Dust2 19-17 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 20 Inferno 10-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 18 Cache 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 9 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 20 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Nuke 1-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 18 Anubis 13-7 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 18 Dust2 13-9 | 21 Anubis 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 18 Mirage 13-4 | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 16 Mirage 4-13 | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 19 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 15 Cache 13-7 | 24 Mirage 19-17 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 23 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 22 Inferno 16-19 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 10 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 20 Cache 13-7 | 19 Mirage 16-12 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































