CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playTake
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
19.28
Hit
68.4%
EV+
+18.5%
Edge
-5.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.5
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+11.7%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%
tucks
AWPer
tucks
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
68%HIT CHANCE
TAKE · UNDER 24.5
BEST UNDER · SL 24.5UD23.5SL24.5
≈ L5 23.0 · L20 22.1
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.33
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
No meeting with Off Chops in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
20.6
7/9 hit at 24.5
Online · this match
23.5
8/11 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm tucks is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 22
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.636 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
19.28
Raw edge
-5.2
Cons. hit
68.4%
EV+
+18.5%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
38.5
Line
24.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
68.4%
-3.4 →
Learned
65%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
44.3%174 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 83.4% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 38.5 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 19% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.2 kills vs line 24.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 55%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 22.2 against a 24.5 line

  • 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
VALUE
  • • Model 19.28 vs line 24.5 → -5.22 (-21.3%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 38.5 rounds · 2-0 63.4% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.07
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
0.77
KPR
0.57
ADR
66
KAST
67%
HS%
54.9%
Multi-kill
11.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.2 · KPR 0.504 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Anubis)9.5 · KPR 0.54 · 17.9r
Required KPR to clear0.636
Base kills (Maps 1-2)20.04
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.10%
Final projected kills19.62
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 83.4% before the safety haircut.
7891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435line 24.5
Lopsided maps38.3%
~16 kills · 33r89.5%
Normal47.5%
~21 kills · 42r71.5%
Close maps8.6%
~21 kills · 41r72.4%
Overtime5.6%
~24 kills · 47r57.3%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMOnline
HLTV #143VRS #132HLTV #142VRS #134
Ground Zero 19%81% Off Chops
Win chance source: Polymarket 19.0% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 19% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
20.6r
-7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
17.9r
Total
38.5r
2-0 sweep63.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.2%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.3%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 22.2 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
22.5 Under64.5%
23.5 Under66.8%
24.5 Under68.4%OFFERED
25.5 Under69.5%
26.5 Under70.2%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 22
Line movement
first 24.5→offno change
  1. Pulled24.5
    Oct 25, 06:18 PM
  2. First seen24.5
    Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.73
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
48.4%
K/D
0.76
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
50.6%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.53
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.73
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.46
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.61
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.75
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-08-12Mindfreak11 Inferno 13-69 Dust2 13-620WUnder ✓
2026-08-11Abyssal15 Ancient 7-137 Anubis 0-122LUnder ✓BO
2026-08-10Mindfreak16 Nuke 13-1024 Anubis 13-440WOver ✗BO
2026-07-19FlyQuest7 Dust2 6-134 Anubis 5-1311LUnder ✓BO
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER12 Dust2 8-1310 Anubis 13-1022SplitUnder ✓
2026-07-18Mindfreak8 Inferno 9-1312 Anubis 13-920SplitUnder ✓
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER9 Dust2 10-1315 Anubis 7-1324LUnder ✓
2026-07-17Arcade17 Mirage 10-1311 Dust2 13-628SplitOver ✗
2026-07-17FlyQuest12 Dust2 7-134 Anubis 6-1316LUnder ✓
2026-07-10Lynn Vision13 Nuke 4-136 Dust2 8-1319LUnder ✓BO
2026-06-18Rooster9 Nuke 13-213 Anubis 11-1322SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-06-16Rooster13 Mirage 13-1020 Dust2 16-1333WOver ✗OT
2026-06-15MARKandLARRY15 Dust2 16-1315 Nuke 13-430WOver ✗OTBO
2026-06-10Masked Regime7 Dust2 11-1311 Mirage 13-618SplitUnder ✓
2026-05-25Kaleido5 Mirage 2-1312 Dust2 6-1317LUnder ✓BO
2026-05-13Chinggis Warriors17 Nuke 6-1312 Inferno 4-1329LOver ✗BO
2026-05-12Rare Atom3 Inferno 3-1318 Dust2 13-521SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-05-11TYLOO9 Nuke 5-135 Mirage 4-1314LUnder ✓BO
2026-05-03THUNDER dOWNUNDER10 Dust2 7-134 Anubis 5-1314LUnder ✓BO
2026-05-02Abyssal13 Mirage 11-1310 Nuke 13-823SplitUnder ✓
CS2 Lab is 21+

Stats and analysis for CS2 props — not betting advice and no guarantee of results. Only play where it's legal, and never more than you can afford to lose.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

We'd like to record anonymous sessions (clicks and page views, no names) to fix bugs. You choose — see Privacy.

Install CS2 Lab
Full screen, one tap from your home screen, live alerts