KillsBetter playLean
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.61
Hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.4%
Edge
+6.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.34
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+1.8
L10
30%
#1Ranked 1 of 277 on the board

Rifler
NickelBack
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
LEAN · OVER 25.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP25.5UD25.5SL25.5
≈ L5 29.2 · L20 28.6
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.05
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.6
13/20 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm NickelBack is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.519 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (21.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.61
Raw edge
+6.1
Cons. hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
49.1
Line
25.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
65.4%
+7.4 →
Learned
72.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
57%207 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 84.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.64) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.7 kills vs line 25.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 46%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.7 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
VALUE
- • Model 31.61 vs line 25.5 → +6.11 (24.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 49.1 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.32
HS/Map
6.62
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.61
ADR
72.3
KAST
72%
HS%
46.2%
Multi-kill
13%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.8 · KPR 0.616 · 24r
Map 2 (Mirage)17.9 · KPR 0.713 · 25.1r
Required KPR to clear0.519
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills32.64
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 84.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.9%
~27 kills · 41r56.6%
Normal51.4%
~31 kills · 49r84%
Close maps7.8%
~34 kills · 53r92.4%
Overtime18.9%
~38 kills · 59r97.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
25.1r
+17% KPR here
Total
49.1r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 27.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 66.6% | |
| 24.5 Over | 66% | |
| 25.5 Over | 65.4% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 63.9% | |
| 27.5 Over | 61.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
19 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.9
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
19.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
43.3%
K/D
1.09
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
39.1%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
42.1%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.38
HS%
42.3%
K/D
0.58
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.47
HS%
25%
K/D
0.47
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.39
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.47
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 8 Anubis 4-13 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-23 | FORZE Reload | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | FORZE Reload | 28 Mirage 19-16 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 14 Cache 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | FORZE Reload | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-0 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | FOKUS | 18 Dust2 16-14 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Players | 17 Dust2 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-3 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | INOX Division | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Inferno 16-12 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 17 Mirage 13-16 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-16 | BAKS | 18 Ancient 16-19 | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Leo | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 17 Cache 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-2 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | HAVU | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 33 Mirage 20-19 | 46 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Honvéd | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 14 Dust2 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | INOX Division | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 23 Dust2 22-19 | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Leo | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































