KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.22
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+2.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.76
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.1%
Edge
+1.3
L10
60%
#47Ranked 47 of 277 on the board

Rifler
HeavyGod
G2 vs Aurora
RISK · OVER 28
BEST OVER · PP 28PP28UD28.5SL28.5
≈ L5 29.2 · L20 29.6Risk · Edge +2.2 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 28 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.92
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 37.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
41
Over 28 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
34
Over 28 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.6
10/20 hit at 28
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HeavyGod is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.642 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.22
Raw edge
+2.2
Cons. hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
28
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.5%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26-30
All players · Kills
54.4%285 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.66) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 28.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 59%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 28.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 30.22 vs line 28 → +2.22 (7.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.8
HS/Map
8.72
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.69
ADR
77.1
KAST
73.9%
HS%
59%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)14.8 · KPR 0.706 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.8 · KPR 0.699 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills30.66
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28. Model: 61.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~25 kills · 37r30%
Normal46.3%
~30 kills · 43r54.7%
Close maps14.1%
~32 kills · 47r68.7%
Overtime16.7%
~37 kills · 53r85%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
+1% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Over) · avg 31.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28
Nearby lines
| 26 Over | 62.1% | |
| 27 Over | 60.5% | |
| 28 Over | 58.5% | OFFERED |
| 29 Over | 56% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 53.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 28→28no change
- First seen28Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.6%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.09
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
48.3%
K/D
1.28
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.53
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.74
Cache
4 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.54
HS%
68.2%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.75
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 31 Dust2 19-22 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 18 Anubis 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Ancient 13-1 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 7-13 | 10 Inferno 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 18 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 16 Anubis 16-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 27 Ancient 16-14 | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 16 Ancient 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 13 Cache 8-13 | 14 Mirage 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Mirage 19-17 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 15 Anubis 7-13 | 26 Inferno 19-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 19 Ancient 13-6 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 12 Cache 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 13-5 | 20 Anubis 16-12 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 3-13 | 18 Anubis 13-3 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 9 Cache 13-5 | 17 Ancient 13-16 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































