KillsRisk
Line
21
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.44
Hit
42.3%
EV+
-26.8%
Edge
-0.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.33
Hit
49.1%
EV+
-15.0%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%
#192Ranked 192 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
Mercury
TYLOO vs Team Spirit
RISK · OVER 13
BEST OVER · PP 13PP13UD13.5SL13.5
≈ L5 14.8 · L20 14.6Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 13 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
56%
9/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.69
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.1
7/11 hit at 13
Online
15.8
2/5 hit at 13
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Mercury is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 10.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~22 kills at 63.4% HS): 0.553 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (67.5%) or blowout (41.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.33
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
49.1%
EV+
-15.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.1
Line
13
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.1%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11-15
All players · Headshots
60.4%169 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 68% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 56.2% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 68% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.69) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.7 headshots vs line 13.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 63%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.7 against a 13.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.33 vs line 13 → +0.33 (2.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 37.1 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.53
HS/Map
7.31
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.54
ADR
60.7
KAST
72.7%
HS%
63.4%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.7 · KPR 0.516 · 18r
Map 2 (Ancient)7 · KPR 0.598 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.553
Base kills (Maps 1-2)20.71
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.31%
Final projected kills20.02
× realistic HS% (63.4%)13.33
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13. Model: 52.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.6%
~11 HS · 32r28.4%
Normal46.4%
~15 HS · 41r57.5%
Close maps10.6%
~15 HS · 41r56.3%
Overtime1.4%
~17 HS · 47r73.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 10.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
18r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.1r
+18% KPR here
Total
37.1r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13 (Over) · avg 14.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13
Nearby lines
| 11 Over | 59.4% | |
| 12 Over | 55.7% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 49.1% | OFFERED |
| 14 Over | 44.1% | below BE |
| 15 Over | 35.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 13→13no change
- First seen13Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.55
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
61.4%
K/D
0.89
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.07
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
60%
K/D
0.92
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
71.4%
K/D
0.75
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
83.3%
K/D
0.35
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Cache 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 6 Mirage 13-2 | 7 Inferno 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 6 Mirage 13-1 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Mirage 13-7 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 1 Mirage 7-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 4 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































