KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.79
Hit
46.8%
EV+
-18.9%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.92
Hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.8%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
#220Ranked 220 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
magixx
Team Spirit vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 25.5
BEST UNDER · PP 25.5PP25.5UD24.5SL24.5
▲ L5 27.6 · L20 23.7Risk · Edge -1.7 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.5
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
23.7
13/20 hit at 25.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm magixx is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 89.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.641 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.79
Raw edge
-1.7
Cons. hit
46.8%
EV+
-18.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
55.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43%207 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.16) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.6 kills vs line 25.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 51%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.6 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.79 vs line 25.5 → -1.71 (-6.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.85
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
0.83
KPR
0.56
ADR
69.7
KAST
68.9%
HS%
51.3%
Multi-kill
13.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)12 · KPR 0.602 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)10.2 · KPR 0.528 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.641
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.5
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills22.16
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-7.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 59% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.4%
~20 kills · 33r81.2%
Normal37.6%
~24 kills · 41r59.7%
Close maps27.2%
~26 kills · 43r53.1%
Overtime7.8%
~29 kills · 49r34.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 89.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
M2 Ancient
19.6r
-13% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 23.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 40.5% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 43.7% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 46.8% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 49.9% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.56
HS%
54.9%
K/D
0.83
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.46
HS%
61.2%
K/D
0.78
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.56
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.95
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
43.3%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
44.8%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 15 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 7 Anubis 6-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 16 Mirage 13-8 | 23 Anubis 13-10 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 21 Cache 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 9 Cache 5-13 | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 17 Dust2 13-6 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-9 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 15 Cache 13-7 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 11 Cache 10-13 | 15 Anubis 16-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 17 Anubis 13-11 | 14 Nuke 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 8 Cache 9-13 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 5 Ancient 13-3 | 21 Dust2 19-15 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































