KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.44
Hit
39.9%
EV+
-30.9%
Edge
-0.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
21.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.43
Hit
41%
EV+
-29.0%
Edge
-0.1
L10
60%
#262Ranked 262 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Dem0N
FUT vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 21.5
BEST UNDER · PP 21.5PP21.5UD20.5SL20.5
▲ L5 22.4 · L20 19.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 21.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.12
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
19.9
12/18 hit at 21.5
Online
19
2/2 hit at 21.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dem0n is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 21 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 67.2% HS): below 0.794 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.43
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
41%
EV+
-29.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.3
Line
21.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41%
+2.8 →
Learned
43.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 19.5-23.5
All players · Headshots
50%30 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.5 headshots vs line 21.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 67%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.5 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 21.43 vs line 21.5 → -0.07 (-0.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 40.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.78
HS/Map
9.93
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.75
ADR
78.1
KAST
79.2%
HS%
67.2%
Multi-kill
16.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)10.5 · KPR 0.816 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)10.5 · KPR 0.754 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.794
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.59
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.97%
Final projected kills31.28
× realistic HS% (67.2%)21.43
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 21.5. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~18 HS · 34r79.4%
Normal53%
~22 HS · 41r48.1%
Close maps14.7%
~23 HS · 43r39.8%
Overtime7.8%
~26 HS · 49r19%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.3r
M2 Dust2
21r
-7% KPR here
Total
40.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21.5 (Under) · avg 22.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
21.5
Nearby lines
| 19.5 Under | 27.9% | below BE |
| 20.5 Under | 32.4% | below BE |
| 21.5 Under | 41% | OFFERED |
| 22.5 Under | 47.6% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 52.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 21.5
Line movement
first 21.5→21.5no change
- First seen21.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
69%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
68.5%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
67.7%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
63%
K/D
1.24
Overpass
5 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.59
HS%
62%
K/D
0.79
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
72.9%
K/D
1.23
Cache
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 26 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 7 Cache 13-10 | 15 Anubis 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 16-13 | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 20 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Nuke 12-16 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 6 Overpass 5-13 | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 1 Overpass 2-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 10 Overpass 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | B8 | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 12 Overpass 11-13 | 23 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-12 | paiN | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 2 Overpass 3-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































