KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.64
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.6%
Edge
+1.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.59
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.4%
Edge
+0.6
L10
30%

AWPer
woxic
Aurora vs G2
RISK · OVER 10
BEST OVER · UD 9.5PP10UD9.5SL9.5
▲ L5 10.8 · L20 9.6Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
25%
5/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±2.87
Previous meeting · vs G2
0/1 hit · avg 9 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 13-7 · Inferno 16-19 · Split
9
Under 10 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.6
5/20 hit at 10
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm woxic is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~34 kills at 32.2% HS): 0.658 KPR over ~47 rounds. His Kills line is 30: backing Kills Over needs ~4 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (25.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.59
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.4%
Rating
3.7/10
Exp. rounds
47.2
Line
10
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.3%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 8-12
All players · Headshots
54.4%79 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 25.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 25.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.5) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.3 headshots vs line 10.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 32%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.3 against a 10.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.59 vs line 10 → +0.59 (5.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.2 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
4.8
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.66
ADR
70.4
KAST
70.2%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
14.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)5.2 · KPR 0.67 · 24.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.3 · KPR 0.72 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.658
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.49%
Final projected kills32.6
× realistic HS% (32.2%)10.59
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10. Model: 58.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.1%
~9 HS · 40r28.5%
Normal39.9%
~11 HS · 47r48.9%
Close maps22.8%
~11 HS · 51r57.5%
Overtime12.2%
~13 HS · 57r71.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
24.4r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.8r
+9% KPR here
Total
47.2r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10 (Over) · avg 10.3 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
10
Nearby lines
| 8 Over | 66.2% | |
| 9 Over | 63.7% | |
| 10 Over | 52.3% | OFFERED |
| 11 Over | 44% | below BE |
| 12 Over | 32.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10
Line movement
first 10→10no change
- First seen10Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
30%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
30.8%
K/D
1.16
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.6%
K/D
1.33
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.15
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
25%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
44.2%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 1 Inferno 16-12 | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 3 Anubis 8-13 | 14 Dust2 19-17 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 3 Inferno 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 5 Cache 13-11 | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 3 Cache 13-9 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 3 Nuke 1-13 | 12 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 1 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 3 Cache 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 2 Dust2 13-9 | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 4 Mirage 13-4 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 2 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 1 Dust2 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 3 Anubis 4-13 | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 3 Cache 13-7 | 4 Mirage 19-17 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 2 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 5 Inferno 16-19 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 5 Dust2 13-3 | 4 Inferno 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 2 Cache 13-7 | 3 Mirage 16-12 | 5 | W | Under ✗ | OT |








































































































































































