KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.37
Hit
38.5%
EV+
-33.3%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.13
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.1%
Edge
-0.4
L10
70%
Rifler
Jimpphat
Aurora vs Nemiga
RISK · UNDER 17.5
BEST UNDER · PP 17.5PP17.5UD16.5
▲ L5 18.0 · L20 17.3Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.26
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.3
13/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jimpphat is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 56.4% HS): below 0.727 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.13
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.2%
0 →
Learned
46.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
44.4%340 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 73% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 42.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 73% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.5 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.6 headshots vs line 17.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 56%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.6 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.13 vs line 17.5 → -0.37 (-2.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 59.1% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.3
HS/Map
8.62
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.72
ADR
75.6
KAST
74.8%
HS%
56.4%
Multi-kill
18.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.8 · KPR 0.699 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.3 · KPR 0.73 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.727
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.49
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.39%
Final projected kills30.37
× realistic HS% (56.4%)17.13
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 52.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.8%
~14 HS · 36r76.8%
Normal38.2%
~17 HS · 43r55%
Close maps22.8%
~18 HS · 46r45.8%
Overtime12.2%
~21 HS · 52r28.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 73% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
22.5r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.2r
-1% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep59.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 16.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Under | 33.2% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 41.6% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 46.2% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Under | 50.6% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 54.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
56.4%
K/D
1.19
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
60.5%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.82
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.27
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
52.4%
K/D
1.05
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1.2
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.98
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | G2 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 8 Inferno 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 11 Inferno 16-12 | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 18 Dust2 19-17 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 8 Cache 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Anubis 13-6 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 5 Cache 13-7 | 11 Mirage 19-17 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 15 Inferno 16-19 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
