KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.56
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-12.2%
Edge
+1.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.24
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Edge
+0.2
L10
70%
Rifler
xfl0ud
FUT vs Vitality
RISK · OVER 14
BEST OVER · PP 14PP14UD14.5
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 15.2Risk · Edge +0.2 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.18
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
0/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Dust2 8-13 · L
11
Under 14 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.9
10/18 hit at 14
Online
17.5
1/2 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xfl0ud is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 25.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55.7% HS): 0.632 KPR over ~40 rounds. His Kills line is 24.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (32.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.24
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.4%
0 →
Learned
49.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
57.9%340 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 26% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 39.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 33% (under 40%) · team 26% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 2.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.3 headshots vs line 14.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 56%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.3 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.24 vs line 14 → +0.24 (1.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
7.6
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.66
ADR
75.3
KAST
77.6%
HS%
55.7%
Multi-kill
14.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.8 · KPR 0.608 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.5 · KPR 0.687 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.632
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.75%
Final projected kills25.56
× realistic HS% (55.7%)14.24
Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 51.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.7%
~12 HS · 33r26.4%
Normal40.6%
~15 HS · 41r49.1%
Close maps14.5%
~15 HS · 43r52.8%
Overtime12.2%
~17 HS · 49r68.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 25.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 26% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.7r
+7% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 16.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 57.8% | |
| 13 Over | 53.9% | below BE |
| 14 Over | 49.4% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 40.8% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 34.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→14no change
- First seen14Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
56%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.72
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.68
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.78
Cache
2 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.95
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.56
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Liquid | 10 Cache 13-5 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 3 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Anubis 13-3 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 14 Cache 13-10 | 6 Anubis 13-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 16 Dust2 16-13 | 10 Ancient 13-5 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 2 Anubis 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 15 Nuke 12-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | Liquid | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 2 Inferno 11-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-03 | Gaimin Gladiators | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-28 | HEROIC | 14 Inferno 14-16 | 8 Overpass 16-12 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-27 | HEROIC | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | HEROIC | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | HEROIC | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | FURIA | 2 Mirage 4-13 | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
