KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.07
Hit
52%
EV+
-10.0%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.81
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.6%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%
#97Ranked 97 of 277 on the board

Rifler
timo
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · OVER 17
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP17UD16.5SL16.5
▲ L5 18.2 · L20 16.7Risk · Edge +0.8 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.12
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
18
5/11 hit at 17
Online · this match
15.1
3/9 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm timo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~32 kills at 56.1% HS): 0.687 KPR over ~44 rounds. His Kills line is 30: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.81
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.6%
Rating
3.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.5%
+7.1 →
Learned
61.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
59.7%191 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.64) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.5 headshots vs line 17.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 56%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 18.5 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.81 vs line 17 → +0.81 (4.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.88
HS/Map
8.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.7
ADR
77.5
KAST
71%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.9 · KPR 0.712 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.7 · KPR 0.722 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.687
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.53%
Final projected kills31.45
× realistic HS% (56.1%)17.81
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 55.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~15 HS · 37r29.4%
Normal61.7%
~18 HS · 45r50%
Close maps8.3%
~19 HS · 47r57.2%
Overtime10%
~22 HS · 53r71.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 18.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 63.7% | |
| 16 Over | 60.7% | |
| 17 Over | 54.5% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 48.7% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 44.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.1
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.53
HS%
70%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Cache 13-5 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 13 Cache 16-14 | 9 Mirage 19-16 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 10 Mirage 16-13 | 21 Inferno 22-19 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 1 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 6 Cache 7-13 | 3 Ancient 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 7 Cache 8-13 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 5 Cache 7-13 | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 5 Cache 9-13 | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































