KillsBetter playLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.57
Hit
60.6%
EV+
+4.9%
Edge
+3.1
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.73
Hit
58.9%
EV+
+2.1%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%
#29Ranked 29 of 277 on the board

Rifler
syph0
Nemiga vs BetBoom
LEAN · OVER 28.5
BEST OVER · PP 28.5PP28.5UD29.5SL29.5
▲ L5 39.4 · L20 32.1
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.5
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
39
4/5 hit at 28.5
Online
29.8
8/15 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SYPH0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.69 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (23.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.57
Raw edge
+3.1
Cons. hit
60.6%
EV+
+4.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
28.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.6%
+8 →
Learned
68.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.6%334 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- High form volatility
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.22) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.4 kills vs line 27.0 (9/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 54%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 35.4 against a 27.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.57 vs line 28.5 → +3.07 (10.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.05
HS/Map
8.6
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.73
ADR
80.9
KAST
77%
HS%
53.6%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.8 · KPR 0.714 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)14.5 · KPR 0.652 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.69
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.13
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills28.22
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 62.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~27 kills · 35r37.3%
Normal54%
~31 kills · 41r60%
Close maps3.6%
~34 kills · 44r70.7%
Overtime18.9%
~38 kills · 50r85.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
19.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
-5% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 35.4 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 64% | |
| 27.5 Over | 63% | |
| 28.5 Over | 60.6% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 58.9% | |
| 30.5 Over | 53.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 27→28.5+1.5
- Moved up28 → 28.5Oct 25, 04:14 AM
- Moved up27 → 28Oct 25, 01:35 AM
- First seen27Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.67
HS%
44.4%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
58.4%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
1.01
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 47 Ancient 25-23 | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 59 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 8 Cache 7-13 | 31 Nuke 16-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 11 Cache 13-11 | 30 Dust2 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 20 Cache 13-6 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 18 Mirage 16-12 | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 25 Mirage 22-20 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 16 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 15 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 16 Nuke 13-2 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 24 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Cache 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 18 Mirage 16-14 | 21 Nuke 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 27 Cache 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 16 Cache 13-4 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 18 Dust2 16-13 | 8 Anubis 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 19 Mirage 16-14 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































