KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.34
Hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.6%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.22
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Edge
+1.7
L10
50%
#46Ranked 46 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Rkzinho
paiN vs BESTIA
LEAN · OVER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5SL17.5
▼ L5 16.4 · L20 18.3
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.16
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.3
5/10 hit at 17.5
Online
18.3
4/8 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Rkzinho is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~29 kills at 62.5% HS): 0.609 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (26.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.22
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
46
Line
17.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.5%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.43) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.3 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 63%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.3 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 19.22 vs line 17.5 → +1.72 (9.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 13.4%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.61
HS/Map
9.14
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.69
ADR
71.6
KAST
75.2%
HS%
62.5%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.6 · KPR 0.724 · 23.6r
Map 2 (Cache)9.8 · KPR 0.707 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.609
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.92
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.73%
Final projected kills32.68
× realistic HS% (62.5%)19.22
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 63% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.8%
~16 HS · 39r35.9%
Normal39.6%
~19 HS · 46r63.6%
Close maps20.2%
~21 HS · 49r72.9%
Overtime13.4%
~23 HS · 55r86.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23.6r
+4% KPR here
M2 Cache
22.4r
+2% KPR here
Total
46r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)33.6%
Overtime13.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 18.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 64.8% | |
| 16.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 17.5 Over | 58.5% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 52.7% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 48.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
67.3%
K/D
1.18
Cache
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.5
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
73.7%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 5 Cache 13-8 | 13 Dust2 22-18 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 1 Inferno 3-13 | 8 Anubis 16-14 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 6 Cache 7-13 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 3 Anubis 4-13 | 14 Cache 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 13 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 13-5 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Cache 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Yawara | 17 Dust2 16-13 | 10 Anubis 16-19 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Grêmio | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | DAMAJUANA | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 8 Nuke 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Isurus | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 5 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Imperial | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Peladona | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 14 Mirage 14-16 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-16 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 8 Cache 10-13 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | ALKA | 7 Cache 7-13 | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































