KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.22
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.2%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.02
Hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Edge
+0.0
L10
50%
#148Ranked 148 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
FalleN
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 13
BEST OVER · UD 12.5PP13UD12.5SL12.5
▲ L5 15.4 · L20 11.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 13 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
30%
6/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.84
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.1
6/20 hit at 13
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm FalleN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~27 kills at 52.5% HS): 0.527 KPR over ~47 rounds. His Kills line is 24.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (24.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.02
Raw edge
+0.0
Cons. hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
13
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.5%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11-15
All players · Headshots
60.4%169 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 30.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 30.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.4 headshots vs line 13.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 52%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.4 against a 13.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.02 vs line 13 → +0.02 (0.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.53
HS/Map
5.53
K/D
0.74
KPR
0.55
ADR
61.6
KAST
70.5%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.2 · KPR 0.517 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)5.8 · KPR 0.463 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.527
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills22.86
× realistic HS% (52.5%)13.02
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13. Model: 50.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~11 HS · 40r25.4%
Normal45%
~13 HS · 48r43.7%
Close maps20.8%
~14 HS · 50r50.4%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 56r63.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
-15% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13 (Over) · avg 12.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
13
Nearby lines
| 11 Over | 61.2% | |
| 12 Over | 56.2% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 51.5% | OFFERED |
| 14 Over | 46.6% | below BE |
| 15 Over | 39.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 13→13no change
- First seen13Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.96
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.43
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.62
Cache
6 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.41
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.6
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.47
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
48.8%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Ancient 16-19 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 9 Cache 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 4 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 3 Nuke 11-13 | 2 Inferno 6-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 9-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 1 Cache 4-13 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 4 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 4 Cache 16-14 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 3 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Nuke 13-11 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 6 Cache 13-8 | 8 Mirage 16-19 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 3 Dust2 5-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 2 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 4 Ancient 14-16 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 2 Ancient 13-2 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 6 Cache 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































