KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.92
Hit
40.4%
EV+
-30.0%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.72
Hit
47.2%
EV+
-18.2%
Edge
-0.3
L10
70%
#216Ranked 216 of 277 on the board

AWPer
YumsaN
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
RISK · UNDER 10
BEST UNDER · PP 10PP10SL9.5
▲ L5 9.8 · L20 9.2Risk · Edge -0.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.1
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
9.2
12/20 hit at 10
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm YumsaN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 29.9% HS): below 0.778 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.72
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
47.2%
EV+
-18.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43
Line
10
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.2%
-8.6 →
Learned
38.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8-12
All players · Headshots
45.6%79 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.69) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.0 headshots vs line 10.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 30%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 9.0 against a 10.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.72 vs line 10 → -0.28 (-2.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.3
HS/Map
4.58
K/D
1.29
KPR
0.78
ADR
81.4
KAST
78.3%
HS%
29.9%
Multi-kill
21.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.1 · KPR 0.796 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Cache)4.6 · KPR 0.732 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.778
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.87
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.42%
Final projected kills32.41
× realistic HS% (29.9%)9.72
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10. Model: 53.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~8 HS · 36r69.3%
Normal53.3%
~10 HS · 44r46.8%
Close maps14.7%
~10 HS · 46r41.3%
Overtime7.8%
~12 HS · 52r27%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.8r
+3% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-6% KPR here
Total
43r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10 (Under) · avg 9.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
10
Nearby lines
| 8 Under | 24.4% | below BE |
| 9 Under | 33.6% | below BE |
| 10 Under | 47.2% | OFFERED |
| 11 Under | 54.6% | below BE |
| 12 Under | 61.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10
Line movement
first 10→10no change
- First seen10Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.8
HS%
32.8%
K/D
1.56
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
29.2%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
22.7%
K/D
1.26
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
25.9%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
32.2%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.89
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 5 Dust2 13-16 | 4 Anubis 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 3 Cache 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 7 Mirage 19-16 | 2 Cache 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 1 Cache 13-9 | 4 Anubis 16-13 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-0 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 1 Dust2 0-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 2 Ancient 13-6 | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Anubis 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 1 Mirage 13-8 | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 7 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 2 Anubis 6-13 | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 1 Cache 13-9 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | ex-RUBY | 3 Dust2 13-10 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































