KillsRisk
Line
22
Pick
OVER
Projection
23
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Edge
+1.0
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.51
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
#52Ranked 52 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
Aleksib
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
LEAN · OVER 11
BEST OVER · UD 10.5PP11UD10.5SL10.5
▲ L5 15.0 · L20 11.2
Hit rates at 11 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.71
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.2
8/20 hit at 11
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Aleksib is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~23 kills at 51.5% HS): 0.507 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
12.51
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
11
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.3%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 9-13
All players · Headshots
58.7%104 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.45) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.7 headshots vs line 12.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.49, HS 51%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.7 against a 12.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 12.51 vs line 11 → +1.51 (13.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.88
HS/Map
5.6
K/D
0.85
KPR
0.49
ADR
60.5
KAST
75.7%
HS%
51.5%
Multi-kill
9.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)5.9 · KPR 0.544 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)5.6 · KPR 0.52 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.507
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.79%
Final projected kills22.22
× realistic HS% (51.5%)12.51
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11. Model: 62.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~11 HS · 35r37.2%
Normal46.9%
~13 HS · 43r57.9%
Close maps16.7%
~13 HS · 45r63.2%
Overtime10%
~15 HS · 51r76.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
21.2r
+12% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
+7% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Over) · avg 12.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
| 9 Over | 65.6% | |
| 10 Over | 62.6% | |
| 11 Over | 58.3% | OFFERED |
| 12 Over | 52% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 44.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11
Line movement
first 12→11-1
- Moved down12 → 11Oct 25, 05:06 AM
- Moved up11 → 12Oct 25, 05:06 AM
- Moved down12 → 11Oct 25, 05:05 AM
- First seen12Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.56
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.53
HS%
67.5%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.85
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.39
HS%
59%
K/D
0.65
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.5
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.81
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
44.7%
K/D
0.8
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.4
HS%
50%
K/D
0.74
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 13 Dust2 22-19 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 2 Cache 10-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Anubis 19-15 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-6 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 6 Nuke 13-5 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 5 Cache 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 13-10 | 2 Inferno 10-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 5 Nuke 13-9 | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 3 Anubis 13-4 | 2 Mirage 6-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 6 Inferno 9-13 | 4 Ancient 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Inferno 14-16 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 3 Mirage 13-7 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Ancient 16-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 2 Dust2 1-13 | 0 Anubis 8-13 | 2 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 2 Mirage 13-3 | 3 Anubis 13-9 | 5 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































