KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.36
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.1%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.35
Hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%
#239Ranked 239 of 277 on the board

Rifler
luchov
9z vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5SL16.5
≈ L5 17.0 · L20 17.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±6.69
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 4-13 · Nuke 7-13 · L
16
Under 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.1
11/20 hit at 16.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm luchov is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 60.1% HS): below 0.676 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.35
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.2%
+4.1 →
Learned
49.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.08) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.2 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 60%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.2 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.35 vs line 16.5 → -0.15 (-0.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.18
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.7
KAST
70.5%
HS%
60.1%
Multi-kill
17.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.6 · KPR 0.658 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.5 · KPR 0.676 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.676
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills26.75
× realistic HS% (60.1%)16.35
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 50.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.9%
~14 HS · 34r71.2%
Normal47.6%
~17 HS · 42r51.4%
Close maps12.5%
~18 HS · 43r48%
Overtime10%
~20 HS · 49r34.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.2r
+4% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 17.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 36.2% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 39.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 45.2% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 48.8% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 54.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 15.5→16.5+1
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 25, 02:47 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
59.5%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.79
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.8
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 10 Cache 10-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 9 Cache 11-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-1 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 0 Inferno 3-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 6-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 14 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Mirage 13-2 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 10 Cache 13-3 | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 14 Ancient 17-19 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Mirage 16-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 6 Inferno 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 17-19 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 6 Nuke 13-10 | 9 Mirage 16-13 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | OT |








































































































































































