KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.93
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.0%
Edge
-1.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.81
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
#180Ranked 180 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
buda
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 13.9Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.98
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
13.5
7/11 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
14.4
6/9 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm buda is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 50% HS): below 0.658 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.81
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Rating
2.6/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.4%
+7 →
Learned
56.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.08) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.5 headshots vs line 14.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 50%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.5 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.81 vs line 14.5 → -0.69 (-4.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
6.97
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.4
KAST
68.1%
HS%
50%
Multi-kill
14.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.4 · KPR 0.66 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.7 · KPR 0.623 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.658
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.3
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.53%
Final projected kills28.15
× realistic HS% (50%)13.81
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 56.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~12 HS · 37r80.2%
Normal61.7%
~14 HS · 45r57.7%
Close maps8.3%
~15 HS · 47r49%
Overtime10%
~17 HS · 53r31.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
22.4r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+1% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 33.5% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 41.4% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 49.4% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 56.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 60.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.86
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
56%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.51
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
6.5
KPR
0.34
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 16-14 | 7 Mirage 19-16 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 10 Mirage 16-13 | 9 Inferno 22-19 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Nuke 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 5 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 10 Cache 7-13 | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 7 Cache 8-13 | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 6 Cache 7-13 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 17 Inferno 13-6 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 9 Cache 9-13 | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 15 | L | Over ✗ |








































































































































































