KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.6
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Edge
-1.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.99
Hit
40.1%
EV+
-30.6%
Edge
-0.0
L10
40%
AWPer
w0nderful
Natus Vincere vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 33.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP33.5UD33.5
▲ L5 40.2 · L20 32.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 33.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±10.24
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.4
14/20 hit at 33.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm w0nderful is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 33 kills or fewer: below 0.725 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
31.6
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
46.2
Line
33.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.1%
0 →
Learned
46.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 31.5-35.5
All players · Kills
44.3%131 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Game script fits: team 63% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 63% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 63% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 2.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.5 kills vs line 33.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 41%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 34.5 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.6 vs line 33.5 → -1.9 (-5.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.2 rounds · 2-0 52.9% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.18
HS/Map
6.65
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.78
ADR
74.3
KAST
76.1%
HS%
41.1%
Multi-kill
20.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.9 · KPR 0.719 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)15.7 · KPR 0.66 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.725
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.81
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.67%
Final projected kills31.6
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 33.5. Model: 57.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~27 kills · 39r79.6%
Normal45.6%
~33 kills · 48r57.4%
Close maps16.7%
~34 kills · 49r52%
Overtime10%
~38 kills · 55r36.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 63% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24r
-12% KPR here
Total
46.2r
2-0 sweep52.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33.5 (Under) · avg 34.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
33.5
Nearby lines
| 31.5 Under | 37.4% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 39.7% | below BE |
| 33.5 Under | 46.1% | OFFERED |
| 34.5 Under | 48.3% | below BE |
| 35.5 Under | 50.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33.5
Line movement
first 33.5→33.5no change
- First seen33.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
43.9%
K/D
1.34
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
43.7%
K/D
1.26
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
37.3%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
39.5%
K/D
1.21
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.9
HS%
40.6%
K/D
1.51
Cache
4 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.95
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 35 Dust2 22-19 | 54 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 21 Cache 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 19 Inferno 6-13 | 28 Anubis 19-15 | 47 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 18 Cache 13-6 | 33 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 16 Anubis 5-13 | 13 Nuke 13-5 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 17 Inferno 13-4 | 33 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 26 Cache 13-10 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 14 Mirage 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 20 Nuke 13-9 | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 16 Anubis 13-4 | 16 Mirage 6-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 24 Inferno 9-13 | 8 Ancient 2-13 | 32 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 19 Inferno 13-5 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Inferno 14-16 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 23 Ancient 16-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 1-13 | 17 Anubis 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 15 Mirage 13-3 | 24 Anubis 13-9 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
