KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.29
Hit
53.7%
EV+
-6.9%
Edge
+0.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.56
Hit
50.6%
EV+
-12.3%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
#118Ranked 118 of 277 on the board

Rifler
jL
Vitality vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 27
BEST OVER · PP 27PP27UD27.5SL27.5
▼ L5 25.4 · L20 27.9Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 27 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.64
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.9
12/19 hit at 27
Online
28
1/1 hit at 27
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jL is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.667 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (31.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.29
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
53.7%
EV+
-6.9%
Rating
3.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
27
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.7%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25-29
All players · Kills
55.1%265 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.11) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.4 kills vs line 26.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 56%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.4 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.29 vs line 27 → +0.29 (1.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 70% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.67
ADR
70.3
KAST
75%
HS%
55.9%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)14.3 · KPR 0.716 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.8 · KPR 0.69 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.667
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.30%
Final projected kills28.11
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27. Model: 52.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.4%
~23 kills · 34r17.4%
Normal46.1%
~28 kills · 42r54.3%
Close maps10.3%
~29 kills · 43r60.9%
Overtime12.2%
~33 kills · 49r83.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
20.3r
-1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.2r
-5% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27 (Over) · avg 28.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27
Nearby lines
| 25 Over | 60.5% | |
| 26 Over | 57.5% | below BE |
| 27 Over | 53.7% | OFFERED |
| 28 Over | 47.6% | below BE |
| 29 Over | 41.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 26→27+1
- Moved up26 → 27Oct 25, 01:00 AM
- First seen26Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
60%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.99
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.1%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
62%
K/D
1.22
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.08
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.58
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.96
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.4%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 10 Cache 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 20 Nuke 16-14 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 21 Dust2 13-2 | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-16 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-6 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-24 | MOUZ | 21 Overpass 13-3 | 10 Ancient 13-1 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-23 | Falcons | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | B8 | 17 Overpass 13-8 | 30 Ancient 22-20 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-22 | MOUZ | 10 Nuke 13-4 | 10 Overpass 13-7 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | M80 | 7 Overpass 13-3 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | NRG | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-17 | MOUZ | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 23 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 9 Nuke 2-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-15 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | MOUZ | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 22 Nuke 19-15 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-11 | MOUZ | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | MOUZ | 19 Dust2 14-16 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































