KillsBetter playLean
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.56
Hit
63.8%
EV+
+10.5%
Edge
+4.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.69
Hit
53%
EV+
-8.2%
Edge
+0.7
L10
30%
AWPer
zorte
BetBoom vs Nemiga
LEAN · OVER 30
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30UD29.5
▲ L5 35.4 · L20 30.4
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.78
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.4
9/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zorte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 61.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.654 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (21.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.56
Raw edge
+4.6
Cons. hit
63.8%
EV+
+10.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
30
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
63.8%
0 →
Learned
63.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
54.2%334 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.5% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 45.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 62% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.3 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 34%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.3 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
VALUE
- • Model 34.56 vs line 30 → +4.56 (15.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.2 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.18
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.68
ADR
69.1
KAST
73%
HS%
33.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)15.5 · KPR 0.646 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.8 · KPR 0.671 · 22r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.59%
Final projected kills30.38
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 65.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.2%
~29 kills · 39r38.3%
Normal35.5%
~33 kills · 43r62.4%
Close maps24.4%
~37 kills · 49r85.2%
Overtime18.9%
~42 kills · 55r95.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 61.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.2 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 62% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
23.9r
-3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22r
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 31.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 67.7% | |
| 29 Over | 66% | |
| 30 Over | 63.8% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 61.1% | |
| 32 Over | 57.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 30.5→30-0.5
- Back on board30.5 → 30Oct 25, 06:59 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 25, 10:00 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
33%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.8
HS%
39.6%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
26%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
40%
K/D
0.91
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
25%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 19 Anubis 10-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 28 Ancient 19-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 25 Dust2 16-14 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 24 Nuke 16-13 | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 25 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 19 Cache 16-14 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 17 Cache 14-16 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 20 Mirage 13-7 | 19 Anubis 13-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 23 Anubis 16-14 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 16 Cache 13-8 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 20 Anubis 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 8 Cache 2-13 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 18 Mirage 10-13 | 26 Dust2 13-6 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 11 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 12 Overpass 8-13 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ |
