KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.3
Hit
45.4%
EV+
-21.4%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.83
Hit
53.6%
EV+
-7.2%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%
#120Ranked 120 of 277 on the board

AWPer
saffee
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 8.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP8.5SL8.5
▼ L5 6.6 · L20 7.7Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 8.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.5
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
7.2
12/16 hit at 8.5
Online
9.5
2/4 hit at 8.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm saffee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 8.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 8 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 27.7% HS): below 0.669 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
7.83
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
53.6%
EV+
-7.2%
Rating
4.3/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
8.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.6%
-7.3 →
Learned
46.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 6.5-10.5
All players · Headshots
48.1%52 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (8.36) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 7.4 headshots vs line 8.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 28%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 7.4 against a 8.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 7.83 vs line 8.5 → -0.67 (-7.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.82
HS/Map
3.83
K/D
1
KPR
0.65
ADR
72.6
KAST
72%
HS%
27.7%
Multi-kill
13.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)3.9 · KPR 0.626 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)4.5 · KPR 0.697 · 23.4r
Required KPR to clear0.669
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.39
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.66%
Final projected kills30.19
× realistic HS% (27.7%)7.83
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 8.5. Model: 60.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~7 HS · 39r77.8%
Normal44.8%
~8 HS · 46r61.2%
Close maps18.6%
~8 HS · 49r54.1%
Overtime12.2%
~9 HS · 55r40.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Cache
22.5r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.4r
+7% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 8.5 (Under) · avg 7.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
8.5
Nearby lines
| 6.5 Under | 29.1% | below BE |
| 7.5 Under | 38.1% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 53.6% | OFFERED |
| 9.5 Under | 61.8% | |
| 10.5 Under | 64.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 8.5
Line movement
first 8.5→8.5no change
- First seen8.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
34.2%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.71
HS%
28.5%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
20%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
21.5%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
21.3%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 2 Cache 13-8 | 3 Dust2 22-18 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 2 Inferno 3-13 | 1 Anubis 16-14 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 4 Cache 7-13 | 4 Dust2 13-9 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 1 Inferno 2-13 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 3 Cache 11-13 | 9 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 2 Cache 13-9 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 9 Cache 13-7 | 2 Dust2 13-3 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 1 Anubis 13-10 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 3 Mirage 13-10 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Cache 8-13 | 11 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 4 Cache 11-13 | 4 Nuke 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 1 Mirage 2-13 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 2 Inferno 12-16 | 5 Nuke 13-3 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 3 Nuke 13-10 | 2 Inferno 17-19 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 5 Nuke 13-6 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 3 Inferno 13-11 | 5 Nuke 13-6 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 6 Cache 10-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































