KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.64
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.6%
Edge
+1.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.59
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.4%
Edge
+0.6
L10
30%
#72Ranked 72 of 277 on the board

AWPer
woxic
Aurora vs G2
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30UD29.5SL29.5
≈ L5 29.4 · L20 29.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.86
Previous meeting · vs G2
1/1 hit · avg 37 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 13-7 · Inferno 16-19 · Split
37
Over 30 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.8
9/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm woxic is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.636 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (25.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.64
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.6%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
47.2
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.2%
+8.3 →
Learned
64.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
55.9%270 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.5 kills vs line 30.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 32%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.5 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.64 vs line 30 → +1.64 (5.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.2 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
4.8
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.66
ADR
70.4
KAST
70.2%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
14.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)16.3 · KPR 0.67 · 24.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)16.3 · KPR 0.72 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.636
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.49%
Final projected kills32.6
G2 gives up (86 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 63.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.1%
~27 kills · 40r22.4%
Normal39.9%
~32 kills · 47r56.7%
Close maps22.8%
~34 kills · 51r70.6%
Overtime12.2%
~38 kills · 57r88.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
24.4r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.8r
+9% KPR here
Total
47.2r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 28.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 62.2% | |
| 29 Over | 59.8% | |
| 30 Over | 56.2% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 49.7% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 44.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
30%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
30.8%
K/D
1.16
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.6%
K/D
1.33
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.15
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
25%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
44.2%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 9 Nuke 2-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 30 Dust2 19-17 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 13 Cache 13-11 | 12 Inferno 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 18 Cache 13-9 | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Nuke 1-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 18 Anubis 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 22 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 15 Nuke 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 13 Mirage 4-13 | 21 Dust2 10-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 12 Cache 13-7 | 32 Mirage 19-17 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 24 Inferno 16-19 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 17 Dust2 13-3 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 12 Cache 13-7 | 12 Mirage 16-12 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | OT |








































































































































































