KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.17
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Edge
+1.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.22
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-24.3%
Edge
-0.3
L10
20%
#129Ranked 129 of 277 on the board

Rifler
YEKINDAR
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · PP 30PP30UD30.5SL30.5
≈ L5 30.2 · L20 30.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.55
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.3
10/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm YEKINDAR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.638 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (24.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.17
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Rating
2/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.8%
+8.6 →
Learned
61.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
55.9%270 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.58) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.5 kills vs line 30.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 60%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.5 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.17 vs line 30 → +1.17 (3.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.15
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1
KPR
0.65
ADR
75.4
KAST
71.6%
HS%
59.9%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.3 · KPR 0.673 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)16.3 · KPR 0.679 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.638
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills31.58
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 57.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~26 kills · 40r20.2%
Normal45%
~32 kills · 48r55.5%
Close maps20.8%
~33 kills · 50r67.6%
Overtime10%
~37 kills · 56r86.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
+4% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
+5% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 27.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 60.3% | |
| 29 Over | 57.8% | |
| 30 Over | 52.8% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 47.2% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 43.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.68
HS%
66%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
50%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
60.9%
K/D
0.93
Cache
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
59.1%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.15
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.14
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 22 Inferno 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 23 Ancient 16-19 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 13 Cache 10-13 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 22 Nuke 11-13 | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 33 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-3 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 20 Ancient 7-13 | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 4 Cache 4-13 | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 31 Cache 16-14 | 50 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 15 Cache 5-13 | 10 Anubis 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 22 Mirage 13-8 | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 15 Cache 13-8 | 21 Mirage 16-19 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Dust2 5-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 17 Ancient 14-16 | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 17 Mirage 7-13 | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 18 Ancient 13-2 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 15 Cache 11-13 | 20 Mirage 13-10 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































