KillsLean
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.91
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-12.1%
Edge
-2.6
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.29
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.5%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
Rifler
erkaSt
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
LEAN · UNDER 29.5
≈ L5 26.8 · L20 27.8LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.6
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.1
8/12 hit at 29.5
Online
27.4
5/8 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm erkaSt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.658 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.91
Raw edge
-2.6
Cons. hit
50.7%
EV+
-12.1%
Rating
1.4/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
29.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
50.7%
0 →
Learned
50.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
45%500 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Game script fits: team 57% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 57% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.3 kills vs line 29.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 53%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.3 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.91 vs line 29.5 → -2.59 (-8.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 54.1% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
7.38
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.64
ADR
76.1
KAST
70%
HS%
53.1%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.9 · KPR 0.582 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)13.1 · KPR 0.627 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.658
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.01
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.39%
Final projected kills26.91
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-3.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 60.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~23 kills · 38r80.7%
Normal50.8%
~28 kills · 46r62.1%
Close maps10.3%
~29 kills · 48r56.6%
Overtime12.2%
~32 kills · 54r41.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
-6% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+1% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep54.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 27.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 45.8% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 48.3% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 50.7% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 53.1% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 57% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.84
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.82
Cache
3 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.81
HS%
49%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 5 Inferno 1-13 | 26 Cache 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 18 Dust2 6-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 31 Dust2 19-17 | 20 Inferno 13-9 | 51 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 15 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 13 Cache 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-5 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 20 Ancient 13-5 | 15 Inferno 12-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 28 Nuke 22-20 | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 13 Ancient 14-16 | 13 Nuke 5-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Inferno 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 12 Cache 7-13 | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 13 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ |
