KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.77
Hit
54%
EV+
-6.4%
Edge
+1.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.22
Hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Edge
+0.2
L10
70%
#101Ranked 101 of 277 on the board

Rifler
KaiR0N-
Nemiga vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 18
BEST OVER · PP 18PP18SL18.5
≈ L5 20.8 · L20 21.2Risk · Edge +0.2 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 18 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.51
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
20.4
3/5 hit at 18
Online
21.5
12/15 hit at 18
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KaiR0N- is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~32 kills at 59.1% HS): 0.737 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 29.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (23.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.22
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Rating
2.3/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
18
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.3%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16-20
All players · Headshots
57.7%149 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.12) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.3 headshots vs line 18.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 59%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.3 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.22 vs line 18 → +0.22 (1.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.93
HS/Map
10.6
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.71
ADR
75.5
KAST
73%
HS%
59.1%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8.1 · KPR 0.71 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)9 · KPR 0.69 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.737
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.87
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills28.96
× realistic HS% (59.1%)18.22
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18. Model: 51.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~15 HS · 35r23.4%
Normal54%
~18 HS · 41r43.9%
Close maps3.6%
~20 HS · 44r55.4%
Overtime18.9%
~22 HS · 50r73.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
19.2r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
+3% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Over) · avg 21.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Over | 61% | |
| 17 Over | 58.1% | |
| 18 Over | 54.3% | OFFERED |
| 19 Over | 48% | below BE |
| 20 Over | 41.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18→18no change
- First seen18Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
54.7%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
22.6
KPR
0.84
HS%
57.5%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.6%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.78
HS%
63.7%
K/D
1.13
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.82
HS%
67.6%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
65.2%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 18 Ancient 25-23 | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 2 Cache 7-13 | 14 Nuke 16-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 14 Anubis 13-5 | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 12 Cache 13-11 | 11 Dust2 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 5 Cache 13-6 | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 13 Mirage 16-12 | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Mirage 22-20 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 9 Cache 13-5 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 13 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 7 Nuke 13-2 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 11 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 9 Cache 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Cache 13-3 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 5 Cache 13-4 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 12 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 15 Mirage 16-14 | 11 Ancient 13-3 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































