KillsBetter playTake
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.74
Hit
67.3%
EV+
+16.6%
Edge
+5.2
L10
70%
HeadshotsTake
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.72
Hit
64.1%
EV+
+11.0%
Edge
+2.7
L10
50%
Rifler
Plopski
Metizport vs BRUTE
TAKE · OVER 16
BEST OVER · UD 15.5PP16UD15.5
▲ L5 20.8 · L20 18.2
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.06
Previous meeting · vs BRUTE
No meeting with BRUTE in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.3
1/4 hit at 16
Online · this match
19
8/14 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Plopski is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 52.8% HS): 0.627 KPR over ~48 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (16.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.72
Raw edge
+2.7
Cons. hit
64.1%
EV+
+11.0%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
48.3
Line
16
Verdict
Take
Plain model
64.1%
0 →
Learned
64.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
56.8%317 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 48.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 59% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.1 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 53%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 18.1 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 18.72 vs line 16 → +2.72 (17.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
- • Expected 48.3 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
17.19
HS/Map
9.08
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.77
ADR
88.4
KAST
78.6%
HS%
52.8%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)9.3 · KPR 0.713 · 24.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)9.9 · KPR 0.776 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.627
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.95
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.13%
Final projected kills36.35
× realistic HS% (52.8%)18.72
BRUTE gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 65% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.8%
~16 HS · 41r40.7%
Normal54.1%
~18 HS · 47r62.5%
Close maps8.4%
~20 HS · 52r77.4%
Overtime20.7%
~22 HS · 58r89.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 58.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
24.3r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
24r
Total
48.3r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 18.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 69.6% | |
| 15 Over | 67.4% | |
| 16 Over | 64.1% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 59.3% | |
| 18 Over | 53.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.03
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.78
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.15
Cache
6 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.86
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.43
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.89
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
60%
K/D
1.32
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | BAKS | 10 Cache 13-6 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 12 Cache 16-14 | 14 Nuke 17-19 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 9 Cache 13-3 | 11 Nuke 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 7 Mirage 8-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 5 Nuke 8-13 | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 8 Mirage 14-16 | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Cache 13-6 | 11 Nuke 14-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Mirage 16-14 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 15 Nuke 25-23 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 12 Inferno 16-13 | 4 Cache 16-13 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 10 Cache 9-13 | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✗ |
